The last weekend of the Australian Football League home and away season always throws up unexpected results. And last weekend was no exception. While fans have come to expect the unexpected, it’s hard to predict just what will unfold.
Flirting with their momentum, Collingwood and North Melbourne were the biggest losers last weekend as their shock capitulations to their lowly opponents consigned them to interstate Elimination Finals when they should have been playing at home in Victoria.
St Kilda, however, made a big statement with a 108-point victory that propelled their percentage beyond Adelaide’s to snatch fourth spot and avoid a potential first week elimination.
With two clubs facing elimination each week until the AFL Grand Final, confidence and momentum in the last third of the season are all-important. While tactics always play a huge role, the winning formula hinges on a belief in a team-mates’ ability to fulfill their role in game plans and set plays at stoppages, along with beating opponents in one-on-one match-ups. It’s a given that it will be hard fought contested footy.
Second Qualifying Final
Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs
Friday, September 5
MCG, Melbourne, 7.50pm
Last match: Western Bulldogs 15.16 (106) defeated Hawthorn 12.2 (74), Round 10 2008 Aurora Stadium, Launceston.
Last five: Western Bulldogs 4, Hawthorn Hawks 1
Hawthorn have won four of their last seven matches. Their last two have been convincing (West Coast by 71 points and Carlton by 78) and they have not had to test their ability to perform under close scoreboard pressure. Boasting arguably the most potent forward set-up in the competition, it could also be their Achilles heel should one of three succumb to injury; they have three players who have kicked in excess of 30 goals this season compared to the Western Bulldogs’ 6 – and when it comes to players who have kicked 10 or more it gets worse for the Hawks with 7 compared to 13. The Hawks should be more settled since Lance Franklin became the first player in a decade to kick 100 goals or more in a home and away season last weekend – he is the first Indigenous player to reach this milestone. This match – like most – will be won and lost in the midfield.
The Bulldogs have won just two of their last seven matches. Having won in Round 21 and their last performance against Adelaide (who won by 9 points) in slippery conditions in hostile territory indicates that they are returning to good form. Coupled with that encouraging last hit-out performance in finals-like pressure, the Bulldogs will draw confidence from their Round 10 victory. Braking apart the Hawks’ midfield structure and consequently limiting their forward’s supply, the ’Dogs entered their own goal-scoring zone twice as many times at their opponent’s home-away-from-home.
First Elimination Final
Adelaide vs Collingwood
Saturday, September 6
AAMI Stadium, Adelaide, 2pm
Last match: Collingwood 15.16 (106) defeated Adelaide 11.8 (74) Round 15 2008, MCG, Melbourne.
Last five: Adelaide Crows 3, Collingwood Magpies 2
Adelaide are steady despite their injury-depleted list. They’ve won five of their last seven. They were lucky last weekend against the Western Bulldogs when a controversial goal was wrongly adjudicated by a goal umpire at a crucial time in the final quarter, where they were holding just a 1-point lead. That decision swayed the momentum. The Crows have the mental toughness and the right match-ups to deal with the Magpies – especially in front of their home fans.
Collingwood, on the other hand, have won three of their last seven. Coming into last weekend’s match they were looking in near-peak form, but their shock loss to Fremantle by 24 points in a low-scoring match raised the ghost of the infamous Colliwobbles. Perfectly placed to take fourth position on the ladder and/or a home final, their loss saw them fall from fifth to eighth and facing a tough assignment to avoid a first week finals exit. They will need to take risks for their youthful team to rise to the occasion.
Second Elimination Final
Sydney vs North Melbourne
Saturday, September 6
ANZ Stadium, Sydney, 7.30pm
Last match: North Melbourne 9.10 (64) drew Sydney 8.16 (64), Round 6 2008, Telstra Dome, Melbourne.
Last five: North Melbourne Kangaroos 2, Sydney Swans 2, drawn 1
Sydney have won three of their last seven. Unconvincing finalists in recent weeks, the Swan’s 61 point victory over the Brisbane Lions last weekend should bolster their confidence. This is their sixth consecutive finals campaign that included two Grand Final appearances and one Premiership. Many argue that the Swan’s ageing list will crumble this weekend, but home state advantage, a wealth of experience and stalwart coaching tactics could hold them in good staid against North Melbourne.
The Kangaroos are facing what could be a disappointing finals exit. Losing their last two, yet winning five of their last seven, until last weekend they were shaping up to be the in-form team (next to Geelong) of the top eight. All they needed to do was defeat lowly Port Adelaide on the MCG last Saturday and they had fourth spot, a double chance and a home state final sewn up. They capitulated by a whopping 76 points and will need to bounce back heavily to avoid elimination – a tough ask in Sydney, but history has shown that those who underestimate the ’Roos do so at their own peril.
First Qualifying Final
Geelong vs St Kilda
Sunday, September 7
MCG, Melbourne 2.40pm
Last match: Geelong 21.10 (136) defeated St Kilda 13.16 (94), Round 4 2008 Telstra Dome, Melbourne.
Last five: Geelong Cats 3, St Kilda Saints 2
Geelong have won and won and won. It’s difficult to imagine any team stopping this juggernaut from winning their second consecutive premiership title. They lost just one match this season in Round 9. Near impossible to match-up against one-on-one, with the deepest list of game-bursting playmakers and steadfast defenders, everything would have to go wrong for them to lose – a most unlikely scenario as they are well-drilled and thrive on pressure.
St Kilda have won five of their last seven. Continuing to improve as the year progresses, they have lost just three matches in the second half of the season. As probably the best-performing club aside from the Cats in recent weeks, the 2008 pre-season competition winners could test last year’s Grand Final winners this weekend – a measurement of which will determine if St Kilda are a genuine threat to Geelong’s back-to-back flag aspirations. However, it’s difficult to put a case forward for the Saints to beat the Cats this week.
