Moderna on Nov. 2 altered its COVID-19 vaccine sales forecast, causing shares to tumble.
Moderna estimated at least $6 billion in sales for its newest shot, which is drawing few takers so far. That estimate then changed from range of $6 billion to $8 billion forecast offered earlier this year.
Moderna announced the new estimate during its third-quarter earnings call.
Shares of Moderna dropped as much as 18 percent to a three-year low of $62.55 in early trade before trimming some of those losses. Moderna stock has already dropped some 60 percent year to date because of concerns around waning demand for the vaccines.
Just 4.5 percent of Americans, or 15 million, have received one of the new Moderna, Pfizer, or Novavax vaccines as of Oct. 27, about 45 days after they became available, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
The agency did not provide a breakdown as to how many of each shot has been administered. Moderna said that 45 percent of the administered shots have been the company’s vaccine, up from 36 percent in 2022. That includes a 51 percent share last week, CEO Stephane Bancel said on the call.
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration cleared the shots, which target the XBB.1.5 Omicron subvariant, in a bid to counter waning effectiveness, but XBB.1.5 has already largely vanished from the United States.
The last round of vaccines was authorized in September 2021 and after about 60 days, 23 million Americans had received one. Before they were replaced by the new shots, the number had risen to 56 million Americans.
Moderna executives say they believe that at least 50 million doses of the new shots will be administered, saying the administration numbers are mostly tracking last year’s when adjusting for the earlier 2022 launch. The early estimate was 50 million to 100 million doses.
TD Cowen analyst Tyler Van Buren in a research note said he is not convinced Moderna’s full-year expectations for the overall market is achievable. COVID vaccine sales have declined in recent weeks, he said, citing IQVIA data, adding that Moderna’s expectations of roughly 50 million shots in the United States are only achievable if sales stay roughly flat from here on out.
The reduction in outlook was “informed by U.S. vaccination trends in recent weeks,” executives said.
Moderna is working to “increase a sense of urgency to get vaccinated” by encouraging medical providers to recommend vaccination, running digital and television advertisements, and amplifying messages from advocacy groups, executives said in the call.
Moderna has already made $3.9 billion in sales of Spikevax, its vaccine, through the third quarter. The sales have mostly taken place outside the United States.
Moderna expects another $1.1 billion in international sales and at least $1 billion in domestic sales, though the latter is contingent on the 50-million projection being met.
“Our assumption is everyone who has gotten their booster in 2023 will at least get their booster also in 2024 and beyond,” Moderna chief customer officer Arpa Garay said on the call.
Executives expect a down year once 2023 is complete, but said they hope their COVID-19 products will be profitable again starting in 2024 and moving forward. Among them is a combination influenza-COVID shot, which is still in testing.
The company posted a third-quarter net loss of $3.6 billion, driven by non-cash charges of $3.1 billion related to manufacturing capacity resizing and on a tax reserve it had to take. Lower revenue was mainly due to a decrease in COVID-19 vaccine sales, executives said. The company also took a $1.3 billion write-down for “excess and obsolete” COVID-19 vaccines.
Overall, Moderna projects not making money in 2024 but should return to profitability in 2025.
Pfizer, too, dropped its estimates in its third-quarter report, attributing the drop to decreased demand for COVID-19 vaccines. Pfizer said in October that it would start a cost-cutting program that was aimed at saving at least $3.5 billion a year and would include layoffs. Pfizer has since moved to close two facilities in North Carolina.
Novavax plans to report its third-quarter results on Nov. 9. Novavax’s vaccine was authorized weeks after the Pfizer and Moderna shots.
Moderna did not take a product to market before its COVID-19 vaccine in 2020.
In a bid to branch out from COVID-19, the company submitted this year applications for a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, but the applications have not yet been cleared by any regulators.
Moderna projects making money from the RSV vaccine starting in 2024.
“We believe 2024 is the low point, and we laid out some of the pieces to that. We’re going to launch two or three new products on top of that in 2025, and have RSV out in 2024, and it'll continue to grow thereafter,” Jamey Mock, Moderna’s chief financial officer, said.
Those products include an influenza vaccine and a “next-generation” COVID-19 vaccine, according to the company.
Moderna also expects to, by 2028, have other vaccines including a Lyme disease vaccine.
