Filmmaker Michael Moore on Thursday told Hill TV that he doesn’t believe in the accuracy of polls estimating the extent of the lead held by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden over President Donald Trump, warning that the Trump vote is being undercounted.
Moore said the most accurate estimate of voter preference for the two candidates is to cut Biden’s lead in the polls by half.
“I have to fight against this constantly,” Moore said, referring to what he suggested were overly optimistic projections of Biden support. “I need to remind people that the poll back in July said at that point that Biden was ahead in Michigan by 16 points. Trump has cut that in half,” he said.
“Trump has tightened virtually every one of these swing states to the point where they’re saying this morning [...] that Biden’s ahead 5 points in Wisconsin, he’s maybe three points ahead in Florida, two points ahead in Arizona,” he said, adding, “Listen, don’t believe these polls.”
“The Trump vote is always being undercounted, the pollsters, when they actually call a real Trump voter, the Trump voter’s very suspicious of the ‘Deep State’ calling them and asking them who they’re voting for. It’s all fake news to them.” Moore said.
“So, it’s not an accurate count,” Moore said. “I think the safe thing to do, this is not scientific, I’m just saying, from my experience of being a Michigander, whatever they’re saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half, right now, in your head. Cut it in half, and now you’re within the four-point margin of error.”
“That’s how desperately close this is,” Moore added.
Moore, in an August post on Facebook, warned that the level of enthusiasm among Trump voters was extraordinarily high.
“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” Moore wrote.
Leib Litman, Co-CEO and Chief Research Officer of CloudResearch, in a note explaining a key takeaway from the study on the “shy voter” phenomenon, noted: “The results could have implications in terms of the true accuracy of phone polls; if Republicans, Independents, and supporters of Donald Trump (regardless of party affiliation) are less likely to participate in polls or accurately disclose the candidate they support, that inherently generates biased poll outcomes.”
Republican strategists, meanwhile, have said that the 2020 race for the White House is impossible to predict.
“Add to this the growing difficulty of anyone regardless of their track record producing poll numbers that can be relied on and the difficulty of calculating just how issues like the pandemic itself and how it has been handled are playing among voters and you have a political fog that is almost impossible to penetrate,” he said.
