Democratic mayors are in charge of almost all of the United States’ 10 most dangerous cities, based on analyses of the latest available national data on violent crimes and the cost of crime.
NeighborhoodScout’s report is based on the number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents in cities with 25,000 or more people. The data are based on the number of violent crimes reported to the FBI in each city, projections of violent crime rates based on prior years’ data, and the population of each city, according to the company.
MoneyGeek analyzed the most recent crime statistics from the FBI to estimate the societal cost of crime per resident in 263 cities that have populations greater than 100,000.
10 Most Dangerous Cities
NeighborhoodScout says it matches crime incident data from “all 18,000+ local law enforcement agencies in the U.S. to the specific local communities the agency covers, and hence in which community the crimes have occurred.”The organization considers homicide, rape, armed robbery, and aggravated assault as violent crimes.
Its most dangerous city is Bessemer, Alabama, with a violent crime rate of 33.1 crimes per 1,000 residents. Bessemer is a suburb of Birmingham, which comes up sixth on this list and second on MoneyGeek’s “cost of crime” top 10 list.
NeighborhoodScout lists Monroe, Louisiana, as its second most dangerous city, with a rate of 26.3 violent crimes per 1,000 residents. Monroe sits halfway between Shreveport, Louisiana, and Jackson, Mississippi.
In third place is Saginaw, Michigan, with a violent crime rate of 25.1 per 1,000 residents. Saginaw is about 100 miles northwest of Detroit.
Rounding out the top 10 are Memphis, Tennessee; Detroit; Birmingham, Alabama; Pine Bluff, Arkansas; Little Rock, Arkansas; Alexandria, Louisiana; and Cleveland.
Several mayoral races in the above cities are run as nonpartisan elections, which means all candidates are in one pool for voters.
Cost of Crime Top 10
MoneyGeek’s data measure the cost of crime per capita in cities of 100,000 or more. It doesn’t drill down to cities as small as NeighborhoodScout (25,000) but ends up with a very similar list and five exact matches.“Crime and safety are intertwined with prosperity, income, and economic opportunity. Crime is costly to individual victims, perpetrators, communities, and society at large,” the finance company posted on its website.
Overall, MoneyGeek calculated the cost of crime in 2021 was $1,836 per capita in U.S. cities, up 6 percent, or $100 per capita, since 2020.
The company says it analyzed crime data, including violent crimes such as murder, rape, and aggravated assault and property crimes such as home burglary and motor vehicle theft. MoneyGeek omitted any cities that didn’t report murder and rape.
It calculated the cost of crime based on the “direct economic costs of crime to individuals and society.”
This includes the medical and mental health care costs for victims and the damage to and loss of property, and the costs for police and corrections, MoneyGeek stated in its report.
“Aside from the imminent danger of crime, people living in higher crime areas see depressed home values and pay higher prices for crucial needs, including home insurance, renters insurance, and auto insurance,” the report states.
Ranked second is Birmingham, with an estimated crime cost per capita of $7,900. It’s also run by a Democrat, Mayor Randall L. Woodfin, who began his second term as Birmingham’s 30th mayor on Nov. 23, 2021.
Baltimore is the third costliest U.S. city in terms of crime, according to MoneyGeek, with an estimated crime cost per capita of $7,230.
The next three cities on the list are Memphis, Detroit, and Cleveland. Three cities from Louisiana make up the 7th, 8th, and 9th spots—New Orleans, Shreveport, then Baton Rouge.
And rounding out the top 10 is Little Rock.
All of the aforementioned cities have Democratic mayors, except Shreveport, which elected Mayor Tom Arceneaux, a Republican who took office on Dec. 31, 2022, after the time period used by MoneyGeek for its report. The previous mayors, since 2006, were Democrats.
At the other end of the scale are Naperville, Illinois, and Sunnyvale, California, which are noted as the least costly cities in terms of crime by MoneyGeek, with both at $156 per capita.
Retail Stores Exit
In addition to topping the list of dangerous cities, Democratic-run metropolitan areas are losing big businesses and feeling the associated financial hit.“We have made the difficult decision to close nine Target stores across four states, effective Oct. 21,” Target said in a statement.
The stores include one in New York City’s Harlem neighborhood, two in Seattle, three in Portland, Oregon, and three in the San Francisco–Oakland area.
“We cannot continue operating these stores because theft and organized retail crime are threatening the safety of our team and guests, and contributing to unsustainable business performance,” Target said.
In California, where Target is closing three stores, a 2014 law, known as Prop. 47, raised the minimum threshold for felony theft to $950 from $400, which critics point to as the main cause of a rise in petty theft in the state.
Target has encouraged the creation of organized retail crime task forces at the state and local levels and supported the recent passage of the INFORM Consumers Act, which gives marketplaces a larger role in combating the second-hand sale of stolen goods.
The big-box retailer has called on Congress to pass legislation to combat retail theft, such as the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, which creates a task force of federal agencies to crack down on organized retail crime.
The bipartisan legislation, introduced at the beginning of 2023 by Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), targets the rise in flash mob robberies and intricate retail theft schemes sweeping the nation.
Organized retail crime “costs retailers $720,000 for every $1 billion in sales—up 50 percent since 2015,” Mr. Grassley and Ms. Masto said.
“Criminal organizations have increasingly turned to retail crime to generate illicit profits, using internet-based tools to organize flash mobs, sell stolen goods, and move money,” the senators stated.
The Grassley–Masto bill would establish a center to combat organized retail crime within Homeland Security Investigations that combines expertise from state and local law enforcement agencies, as well as retail industry representatives. It also creates new tools to assist in the federal investigation and prosecution of organized retail crime and help recover lost goods and proceeds, according to a statement by Sens. Grassley and Masto.
The Combating Organized Retail Crime Act is supported by the National Retail Federation, the Retail Industry Leaders Association, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Peace Officers Research Association of California, the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association, Sergeants Benevolent Association of the NYPD, and the Protect America’s Small Sellers Coalition.