As Maldivians head for the ballots this month, Mariyam Imad looks into some of the issues threatening these small islands, and the vast stakes around them.
The Maldives is a nation of coral islands surfacing from a submarine mountain range 400 kilometers south of India. With a population of under 400,000, it is the smallest country in Asia, but its location is of strategic importance for maritime trade and security across the region. The archipelago lies at the heart of the Indian Ocean, where the interests of numerous countries overlap (including those of India and China). It also stands at the frontier of today’s Muslim world, with Maldivian Islam as likely to evolve towards moderation as towards religious fundamentalism. In the run-up to the presidential election on 28 September, Maldivians will be choosing the course they navigate through these challenging waters on the arduous journey towards achieving real stability for their country.
Since its independence in 1965, the Republic of the Maldives has been run by autocrats, vindicated by single-candidate referendums, and who have tended to drive prosperity at the expense of fundamental freedoms. After a decade of heavy-handed leadership, the country’s first president, Ibrahim Nasir, fled to Singapore in the face of allegations of embezzlement. His successor, Maumoon Gayoom, remained in office for 30 years in spite of accusations from Amnesty International that his government was imprisoning and torturing opponents. Following mounting civil unrest and pressure from the West, Gayoom agreed to calls for a multi-candidate presidential election in 2008, and lost to Mohamed Nasheed – a prodemocracy activist.
Nasheed’s attempts at reform met with applause abroad, but complications at home. A lack of political unity stalled many of the liberal moves proposed by his party. He also disillusioned voters in 2012 by overstepping his mandate and ordering the arrest of the country’s top criminal judge. Nasheed resigned from office in the ensuing protests, but then accused the interim government that took over of having orchestrated the events as part of a coup. He has been campaigning for re-election since. Nasheed’s allegations remain a matter of controversy. They were rejected by a national inquiry, but the inquiry was in turn criticized by international rights groups.
Gayoom was not in government at the time of the events, and is not himself running in the upcoming September election race. However, his daughter and son were promoted to ministerial positions in the interim cabinet, and Nasheed’s rival in the election to be held in three weeks happens to be Gayoom’s younger brother, Yaamin Abdul Qayyoom.
The long-term danger of this confusion is that it risks making voters tired of the current candidates, and tired of voting altogether. Because Yaamin owes his allegiance to the established political caste, he must live down association with the cronyism and repression which the country is falling back into. On the other hand, any unpopular actions from Nasheed risk giving voters the impression that he is no different to his predecessors, thus weakening the cause for further liberal reform. The Maldives’ recent taste of democracy has prompted citizens in their thousands to debate the destiny of their country on social media platforms and take to the streets for what they believe in. But demands are wide-ranging and opinions are volatile in this young democracy. Concerns range from freedom of the press to the price of food, and include such issues as enforcing bans on statues of foreign religious origin.
An erratic start to elections in the region risks perpetuating a continuum of discontented protest rather than fostering public participation and dialogue. Perhaps more importantly, so long as rival parties and coalition partners feud amongst each other, none will enjoy the unity necessary to carry out hard reforms. There is little agreement on how to diversify the economy away from the staple of tourism. Sharp drops in the fish catch in recent years are endangering the livelihood of one tenth of the islands’ work force. Over the longer term, the country remains exceptionally vulnerable to rising sea-levels. And all the while, Islam is radicalizing across its communities, leading to strains in social cohesion. A trusted captain would be welcome at the helm as the Maldives enters these uncharted waters.
Gayoom’s dirigisme and Nasheed’s brashness have done little to consolidate state institutions in the Maldives. Over the coming weeks, this blog will explore the difficulties which the country faces. However, for all its challenges, the fate of this fragile democracy lies in the one place where it belongs: the hands of the Maldivian people.
Mariyam Imad
