Majority of NATO Nations Show Sharp Uptick in Military Spending

Amid ongoing war in Ukraine, NATO members are spending billions more on defense.

Illustration by The Epoch Times

News Analysis

President-elect Donald Trump has frequently lambasted other NATO countries for failing to fulfill their financial obligations toward the military alliance. But when he returns to the White House in January, he could find a lot less resistance.

European nations’ appetite for greater defense spending has been sharpened by the war in Ukraine and by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continual saber-rattling.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Nov. 28 that the NATO bloc needs a “massive” defense spending boost—the latest of many European political heavyweights to say so.

But how much exactly has each country been contributing? How do the contributions compare historically? How much are members spending on the Ukraine war? And how much more might they be willing to spend?

What Are NATO’s Current Targets?

In 2014, NATO set a target that all members should be spending 2 percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) by 2024.

In July 2023, at a summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius, NATO members signed a communiqué which restated the 2 percent minimum, but added, “We commit to invest at least 20% of our defence budgets on major equipment, including related research and development.”

Official NATO figures for 2023, published in March this year, showed only 10 of the United States’ 31 NATO allies had met the 2 percent GDP spending target. But in just one year, according to provisional NATO estimates for 2024, published in June, that number has now risen to 23 out of the 31.

So who is hitting the target and who are the laggards?

Poland—the NATO country closest to Ukraine—spent 4.1 percent of its GDP on defense (up from 1.8 percent in 2014).

That is more than the United States, which this year is spending an estimated 2.7 percent of its GDP on defense.

NATO says U.S. defense expenditure is approximately two-thirds of the alliance’s overall spending.

Greece—who has traditionally been a big spender because of the possibility of conflict with neighboring Turkey—is spending 3 percent of GDP, and the Baltic countries, for obvious reasons, forked out a similar amount.

President Joe Biden speaks during NATO's 75th anniversary summit at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington on July 10, 2024. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

Romania, which neighbors Ukraine, contributes 2.25 percent of its GDP, up from 1.6 percent in the space of only 12 months.

Last week, an independent candidate who has criticized NATO and the European Union, Calin Georgescu, won the first round of the Romanian presidential election.

Britain exceeds the 2 percent barrier, but after becoming prime minister in July, Keir Starmer declined to say when his Labour government would hit its own target of 2.5 percent.

France came in just above the target, at 2.06 percent.

Germany, whose political and military muscle could be significant, has broken through the barrier this year and now spends 2.12 percent.

Turkey, which is now at 2.09 percent, has also hit the target in the past 12 months.

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The Turkish military not only garrisons the northern part of Cyprus, which it has occupied since 1974, but has also been involved in the Syria conflict, which is bubbling up again.

In recent days terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seized the city of Aleppo in northern Syria.

Among of the lowest spenders in NATO are the Canadians, who spend 1.37 percent.

On Nov. 25, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada was on a “clear path” to reaching the defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP by 2032, which is eight years beyond the target date set by NATO.

At the bottom of the list is Spain, which spends 1.28 percent of its GDP on defense.

Spain only joined NATO in 1982, and its defense spending was far higher before it joined, especially before the death of the dictator and former general, Francisco Franco, in 1975.

By comparison, Ukraine is currently spending 37 percent of its GDP on defense, while Israel will have spent far more than the 4.5 percent it reported in 2023.

How Has Spending Changed?

NATO was formed in 1948, three years after the United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union defeated Nazi Germany and the empire of Japan.

The United States had initially stayed out of the Second World War—which was triggered by German expansionism and aggression—but was drawn in after Japan attacked Pearl Harbor.

After the war, the British Empire, which had just granted independence to India and Pakistan, was in a terrible state financially, as was France, while Germany was in ruins and still years away from the industrial miracle that would make it Europe’s richest nation.

In 1955 the Soviet Union created the Warsaw Pact—an alliance of communist countries in Eastern Europe—which was set up in response to the creation of NATO.

A map shows Europe during the Cold War in 1989. Illustration by The Epoch Times

Defense spending stayed relatively high during the Cold War but, according to a table in an academic paper by Jarosław Wołkonowski, a Polish-Lithuanian historian, it fell gradually depending on individual countries’ commitments.

Canada—which was involved in the Korean War—spent 7.37 percent of its GDP on defense in 1953, but this fell to 2.15 percent in 1970.

France spent 5.89 percent in 1962—at the tail end of the colonial war in Algeria—falling to 3.77 percent in 1980.

Britain spent 7.66 percent in 1956—the year of the Suez Crisis—and was still spending 4.46 percent of its GDP on defense in 1981, when it was involved in the conflict in Northern Ireland.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, global defense spending fell, reaching its nadir—$1,144 billion—in 1996, down by one-third from the $1,730 billion spent in 1988.

Germany was unified, and thousands of U.S. troops were withdrawn from Europe.

But in 2000, President Vladimir Putin came to power and Russia, boosted by exports of oil, gas and minerals, became an economic power again and increasingly sought to flex its political and military muscle.

Since then a graph in a NATO press release tells the story in stark detail.

A map shows Europe after Finland and Sweden joined NATO. Illustration by The Epoch Times

Defense spending among NATO members fell by 2.7 percent in 2012 from the year before, but for 2017 it rose by 5.9 percent above the prior year.

So, what about NATO’s support for Ukraine?

It then dipped again, but by 2023 it was up year on year by 9.3 percent, and in 2024 it was estimated to have risen by 17.9 percent.

The graph almost perfectly coincides with incidents of Russian aggression—in 2014 Russia annexed Crimea and was supplying separatists in the Donbas, and then in February 2022 it launched a full-blown invasion of Ukraine.

What About Ukraine?

Ukraine is not a NATO member—if it had been, then the alliance would have been duty-bound to come to its defense when Russia invaded in February 2022.

But NATO sees Ukraine as a vital buffer between Russia and Eastern Europe and fears that if it caves, Moscow will be emboldened.

In the foreword to his last annual report, Jens Stoltenberg, then the NATO secretary-general, said, “Supporting Ukraine is not charity, it is in our own security interest.”

On Nov. 27, seven countries, all NATO members—Poland, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway and Latvia—met in Harpsund, Sweden, and issued a joint statement in which they said, “Ukraine’s courage and resilience will be backed by strong and steadfast support by our countries whereby military assistance is an integral part,” and then tellingly added, “We encourage others to do the same.”

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in Athens on Nov. 26, “Our support for Ukraine has kept them in the fight, but we need to go further to change the trajectory of the conflict.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (L) and outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte shake hands during a visit to the Eindhoven Military Air Base, in Eindhoven, Netherlands, on Aug. 20, 2023. Rob Engelaar/ANP/AFP via Getty Images

Separately, the European Union—whose members are in NATO, with the exception of Austria, Cyprus, Malta and the Republic of Ireland—has donated 45.5 billion euros ($48 billion) to the Ukrainian army.

What of the Future?

NATO will hold a summit in The Hague in June 2025, and Rutte might try to set a new, higher target for defense spending, considering the 2 percent target was set a decade ago and most NATO members have now exceeded it.

On Dec. 3, during a press conference in Brussels, Rutte said, “We need to do more. It will not be enough to stick at 2 percent because longer term, that means that our deterrence is not strong enough.”

Or he could ask NATO countries to donate more to the Ukrainian war effort.

That is, if the war is still going on.

During the election campaign, Trump promised to end it quickly.

On Nov. 21, Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson, told a Royal United Services Institute briefing in London, “Obviously, we’re in a better place than we used to be, but is 2 percent enough? Does anybody here think that 2 percent is enough?”

She said, “I would think that there will be a big push towards 3 percent and frankly, we should not need Donald Trump to tell us that we need 3 percent because frankly, if there is any change or moderation of the U.S. commitment to Europe ... we will need 4 percent and 5 percent of GDP on defense.”

Lungescu pointed to an opinion poll in Germany published earlier this month, which she said showed, “50 percent of those asked said that 3 to 3.5 percent [of GDP] is about right, which is a huge, huge mindset change for Germany.”

Reuters contributed to this report.