States that instituted more severe COVID-19 lockdowns have put a drag on recovery in a labor market desperate for hires.
In February 2020, before the main brunt of the first pandemic wave hit America, there were about 164.6 million people in the labor force, defined as those holding jobs and those who had looked for a job in the prior four weeks. That number dropped to a low of some 156 million in April 2020 and has since climbed back up to about 164.4 million this March.
But the labor force naturally grows by about 100,000 a month due to the growing population. During the years before the pandemic, it even outpaced this growth, pulling in people who previously weren’t looking for jobs. If the trend had continued, the country would have had about 3 million more in the labor force by now.
And those millions are sorely missing.
Based on that ranking, the states with more severe lockdowns (score below 50) saw their labor force participation this February more than 2.2 percent below February 2020 on average, adjusted for seasonality and state population.
States with less severe lockdowns (score above 50) saw their labor force participation drop down by less than 1.3 percent.
There are exceptions to the trend, however. Some of the most open states, Iowa and Wyoming, experienced pronounced drops in labor force participation, about 3.9 and 3.6 percent respectively.
On the other hand, Delaware, which underwent some of the most stringent lockdowns, had its labor force participation increase by almost 0.7 percent. Massachusetts, also profoundly restricted, has its labor force participation back to the pre-pandemic level. And Oregon, less, but also significantly restricted, saw the largest increase in labor force participation in the nation, nearly 3 percent.
Almost all of the more open states were headed through the pandemic by Republican governors, with the exception of Kansas and Wisconsin. Montana switched from Democrat to Republican in January 2021.
Almost all the states with more severe lockdowns were headed by Democrats, except for Massachusetts, Ohio, and Vermont. Virginia switched from Democrat to Republican in January 2022.
Vermont has suffered by far the largest drop in labor force participation, more than 8.5 percent. Gov. Phil Scott, among the most left-leaning Republicans, led the deep-blue state through perhaps the most stringent lockdowns in the nation. On the flip side, the state has nearly the lowest COVID-19-associated mortality.