North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is returning to North Korea after meeting with Russian President Dimitri Medvedev on a military base in eastern Siberia. The discussions were focused on economic projects and on reviving stalled talks on North Korea’s nuclear program.
During the meeting, Kim agreed to a moratorium on nuclear weapons’ tests and expressed a willingness to unconditionally return to six-party talks about North Korea’s nuclear program. But experts question how much that really means.
The talks between the two Koreas, the United States, Japan, China, and Russia aimed at finding a peaceful resolution to security concerns about the North Korean nuclear weapons program broke down in 2009. North Korea then walked out in anger over a United Nations Security Council statement condemning a suspected North Korean missile test.
There are several problems with resuming the talks, however. First, South Korea will be expecting an apology for the North’s attacks on Yeonpyeong Island and the sinking of the Cheonan warship last year.
Also, North Korea may try to improve its bargaining position by distorting what the talks are really about, according to Scott A. Snyder, adjunct senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council of Foreign Relations.
In a post on the Asia Unbound blog, he argues that North Korea’s call for an unconditional return means that North Korea seeks “implicit recognition of its nuclear status” since it has developed its nuclear and missile status further since the talks broke down.
He also indicated that a shift has occurred where North Korea now wants the talks to be about a peace treaty—ending the 58-year-old armistice agreement between North Korea and the United States—rather than disarmament.
China has also tried to shift the talks in the direction of managing crises and avoiding tensions on the peninsula. Unless the United States and China agree that the objectives of the talks should be denuclearization, China may apply pressure on Washington to accept North Korea’s nuclear status in the name of defusing tension, Snyder wrote.
Even if the six-party talks were to resume, hopes are not high among experts that they would lead to much.
“North Korea is always happy to negotiate, but unlikely to come through with any of its concessions,” wrote Warren I. Cohen, professor of history at the University of Maryland, via email.
Dr. Patrick Fullick of the Capital Science Connections innovations agency told Russia Today that he thinks North Korea’s nuclear status is too important a tool for North Korea to give up, both for its prestige, its domestic policy, and for gaining international attention.
Since the breakdown of the talks, North Korea has become even more isolated, and the country has been experiencing what Amnesty International last year described as a “crippling food crisis.” The humanitarian situation has been further compounded recently by punishing floods.
The possibility for aid as well as plans for large-scale economic projects between Russia and North Korea are, therefore, most likely strong, motivating factors for North Korea to return to the talks.
North Korea has also offered to arrange for aging Korean-Americans to meet their North Korean relatives and to return the remains of U.S. soldiers killed in the Korean War. This has been viewed as a way to bargain for more U.S. food aid.
A closer relationship between Russia and North Korea may represent a shift in the regional power balance, where North Korea is normally considered something of a proxy for China.
According to sources, Kim Jong-il’s train stopped in Inner Mongolia on Thursday, and a crowd of people that “may have been Chinese officials” was waiting on the platform.
Kim has made three trips to China in one year, but this was his first visit to Russia in nine years.
Cohen thinks North Korea wants to show China that they have alternatives and that Russia is also happy to play an enhanced role. He does not think that Russia can counterbalance China in the complex power game, however. “Only the U.S. can,” he said.
During the meeting, Kim agreed to a moratorium on nuclear weapons’ tests and expressed a willingness to unconditionally return to six-party talks about North Korea’s nuclear program. But experts question how much that really means.
The talks between the two Koreas, the United States, Japan, China, and Russia aimed at finding a peaceful resolution to security concerns about the North Korean nuclear weapons program broke down in 2009. North Korea then walked out in anger over a United Nations Security Council statement condemning a suspected North Korean missile test.
There are several problems with resuming the talks, however. First, South Korea will be expecting an apology for the North’s attacks on Yeonpyeong Island and the sinking of the Cheonan warship last year.
Also, North Korea may try to improve its bargaining position by distorting what the talks are really about, according to Scott A. Snyder, adjunct senior fellow for Korea studies at the Council of Foreign Relations.
In a post on the Asia Unbound blog, he argues that North Korea’s call for an unconditional return means that North Korea seeks “implicit recognition of its nuclear status” since it has developed its nuclear and missile status further since the talks broke down.
He also indicated that a shift has occurred where North Korea now wants the talks to be about a peace treaty—ending the 58-year-old armistice agreement between North Korea and the United States—rather than disarmament.
China has also tried to shift the talks in the direction of managing crises and avoiding tensions on the peninsula. Unless the United States and China agree that the objectives of the talks should be denuclearization, China may apply pressure on Washington to accept North Korea’s nuclear status in the name of defusing tension, Snyder wrote.
Even if the six-party talks were to resume, hopes are not high among experts that they would lead to much.
“North Korea is always happy to negotiate, but unlikely to come through with any of its concessions,” wrote Warren I. Cohen, professor of history at the University of Maryland, via email.
Dr. Patrick Fullick of the Capital Science Connections innovations agency told Russia Today that he thinks North Korea’s nuclear status is too important a tool for North Korea to give up, both for its prestige, its domestic policy, and for gaining international attention.
Since the breakdown of the talks, North Korea has become even more isolated, and the country has been experiencing what Amnesty International last year described as a “crippling food crisis.” The humanitarian situation has been further compounded recently by punishing floods.
The possibility for aid as well as plans for large-scale economic projects between Russia and North Korea are, therefore, most likely strong, motivating factors for North Korea to return to the talks.
North Korea has also offered to arrange for aging Korean-Americans to meet their North Korean relatives and to return the remains of U.S. soldiers killed in the Korean War. This has been viewed as a way to bargain for more U.S. food aid.
A closer relationship between Russia and North Korea may represent a shift in the regional power balance, where North Korea is normally considered something of a proxy for China.
According to sources, Kim Jong-il’s train stopped in Inner Mongolia on Thursday, and a crowd of people that “may have been Chinese officials” was waiting on the platform.
Kim has made three trips to China in one year, but this was his first visit to Russia in nine years.
Cohen thinks North Korea wants to show China that they have alternatives and that Russia is also happy to play an enhanced role. He does not think that Russia can counterbalance China in the complex power game, however. “Only the U.S. can,” he said.
