Kentucky’s May 17 primary slate includes inter-party battles for the state’s General Assembly, one United States Senate berth, and six U.S. congressional seats.
For the most part, however, challengers face longer odds in unseating incumbents in most of the preliminary races than 80-1 underdog Rich Strike did in winning the Kentucky Derby earlier in May.
Three days of early voting continues through May 14.
Two-term Republican U.S. Senator Rand Paul faces five little-known, marginally financed hopefuls in his GOP primary. His campaign is already targeting his likely November Democratic opponent, former state Rep. Charles Booker.
Beyond general assembly and municipal elections on the ballot, the May 17 action will be in the state’s six congressional districts where five GOP incumbents have significant fundraising advantages over opponents and are projected to advance.
The one race guaranteed to produce a newcomer is in Congressional District 3 (CD 3), where eight-term Democratic U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth is retiring. Two state lawmakers are vying for his seat in the Democratic primary for the Louisville-area district, the only one rated by the Cook Partisan Voting Index as leaning blue in the Bluegrass State.
Primary elections are underway despite a lawsuit challenging the refashioned congressional districts in post-2020 Census reapportionment.
The Kentucky General Assembly adopted new electoral district boundaries that Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear vetoed. On Jan. 20, both chambers overrode the veto in party-line tallies.
That same day the Kentucky Democratic Party filed a 291-page lawsuit in Franklin County Court challenging the new map. Franklin County Circuit Judge Thomas Wingate ordered parties to file briefs by June 15 for a summer trial following the April hearings. Therefore, the new districts are in effect for May 17’s primary.
May 14’s conclusion of a three-day early voting period follows in-person, excused, absentee early voting May 4-6 and May 9-11. Mail-in Absentee ballots were due May 3. The turnout figures for earlier voting periods had not been posted as of Thursday.
State lawmakers created the three-day “no excuses necessary” early voting period during their 2021 legislative session in a rare bipartisan pact to expand voting access. Early votes won’t be counted until after polls close.
Congressional District 1
This district, which spans western Kentucky from Franklin County into the central core of the state, is the chief focus of the Democrats’ lawsuit and the only one where November’s field is set.Congressional District 2
Seven-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Brett Guthrie faces two GOP challengers, Brent Feher and Lee Watts, in the Republican primary for the district, which spans western Kentucky and includes the cities of Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Elizabethtown.His largest individual donors are DaVita ($23,000), Blue Cross/Blue Shield ($15,500), and Centene Corp. ($10,800). Charter Communications, Comcast, First Urology, Molina Healthcare, NCTA, The Internet and Television Association, and the UnitedHealth Group are among organizations that have kicked $10,000 each into his kitty.
Feher, a small business owner from Owensboro and a political newcomer, did not file an April FEC report indicating his campaign contributions were below the reporting threshold.
Compton is a 28-year-old high school music teacher and Plum Springs City Commissioner. His FEC April filing listed $2,251 in campaign funding.
Congressional District 3
Six Republican candidates are vying for the party’s bid to run in November against a Democratic candidate in the state’s only congressional district where the GOP does not dominate.After serving a decade in the chamber, McGarvey, the Senate Minority Leader, appears to be the frontrunner by virtue of key endorsements, including by the retiring Yarmuth, who has anointed him as his chosen successor.
As a result, McGarvey had raised more than $1.5 million for his campaign, according to his April FEC filing, with top donors including Brown-Forman Corp. ($24,505); Frost Brown Todd ($24,350); Churchill Downs ($18,100); and the University of Louisville ($14,055).
According to her April FEC filing, Scott, a three-term statehouse rep and former Louisville City Councilwoman had raised $236,476 for her campaign.
Congressional District 4
If there is any drama in Kentucky’s primaries outside the Democrats battling for Yarmuth’s Louisville-centric CD 3 seat, it is in the GOP’s primary in CD 4, which spans northern Kentucky and includes Louisville’s eastern suburbs.Massie had raised $731,985 for his campaign, according to his April FEC filing, with top donors including Majority Committee PAC ($10,000), Saulsbury Industries ($8,700), Runestad Financial Services ($5,800); Susquehanna International Group ($5,800); and Maple Engine ($5,800).
In April, Wirth had $254,120 in campaign donations, with $238,116 self-funded.
Congressional District 5
Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Hal Rogers, 84, is seeking a 22nd term in the House. He has represented the district, which spans eastern Kentucky from Somerset to Ashland, for 42 years and is currently the longest-serving member of Congress.He is heavily favored to remain the senior U.S. House rep after cruising to an expected primary win Tuesday over four challengers and then against a Democratic newcomer in November.
Only the late former U.S. Rep. Don Young has served longer in Congress than Rogers. The Alaska Republican was his state’s lone House rep for 48 years.
According to his FEC filing, the incumbent had $453,296 in his campaign coffers in April. Rogers’ largest donors are General Dynamics ($10,000); Harbor Cottage Houseboats ($10,000); Boeing ($9,000); Republic Consulting ($8,750); and Triton Pacific Capital Partners ($8,700).
Serrano’s filing showed $45,841 in campaign funds and Van Dam’s $39,301, mostly self-funded. Monhollen did not file with the FEC.
Congressional District 6
Five-term incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Barr is expected to defeat his one primary challenger and then easily cruise past the Democratic primary winner in November.If bumps emerge on the road to reelection, Barr’s campaign has $2.5 million to smooth them out.
Barr serves on the House China Task Force created to combat the Chinese Communist Party’s threat to the United States and the House Financial Services Committee.
Of the $2.57 million that his campaign reported in contributions in its April FEC filings, Barr’s largest donors come from the securities and Investment industries ($296,497), the insurance industry ($201,362); real estate interests ($158,894); and commercial banks ($91,980).
Young’s campaign reported $96,184 in contributions in its April FEC filing. Preece’s campaign had $28,860 in its coffers.