Opinion

Japan Is Not the Only Country Worrying About Population Decline

The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. And worries about “overpopulation” can be seen everywhere from the U.K. to Sub-Saharan Africa.
Japan Is Not the Only Country Worrying About Population Decline
Two elderly survivors and friends smile as they are reunited 10 days after the massive 9.0 earthquake and tsunami in Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture, on March 21, 2011. Toru Yamanaka/AFP/Getty Images
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The past century has been one of unprecedented global population growth. While the number of people in the world doubled from 0.8 to 1.6 billion between 1750 and 1900, the 20th century saw a near quadrupling to 6.1 billion. In the past 15 years alone, more than 1.2 billion have been added to that. Worries about “overpopulation“ can be seen everywhere from the U.K. to Sub-Saharan Africa.

So it may have been a surprise to some to see Japan, the world’s third largest economy, posting the first population decline since 1920, falling 0.7 percent from five years earlier. A persistently low birth rate is the main reason.

Japan has been worrying for a while now about whether its population may one day become extinct. In 2006, the Japanese National Institute of Population and Social Security Research predicted that by the end of the present century, population would decline to around 50 million, falling further to 10 million by the end of the next.

By 2350 just 1 million would be left and by the year 3000 just 62 people would be rattling around the Land of the Rising Sun. (Perhaps by then we would be living underwater.)

Predicting Japan's extinction: total population (millions). (Japanese National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Predicting Japan's extinction: total population (millions). Japanese National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Stuart Gietel-Basten
Stuart Gietel-Basten
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