For months now Venezuela has been like a pressure cooker with mass demonstrations and the looming threat of a countrywide electricity failure. The pressure increased last week with the arrest of a leading TV journalist. President Chavez’s unpopularity continues to rise, and he has been trying to keep the lid on.
From the outside, it appears as though Chavez has no way out. At some point, Venezuela will reach the limit and boil over, creating chaos, which Chavez’s presidency might not survive.
The situation has all of Venezuela speculating about what will happen next. A recent series of events have suggested to some nervous Venezuelans that Chavez may be getting ready to pre-empt the seemingly inevitable explosion.
One way to do so is to engineer a controlled explosion to head off the spontaneous one. The thinking goes that Chavez could be getting ready to stage a military coup and then soundly defeat it. He would thus assert a legitimate right to govern. At the same time he would get a license to exercise absolute control while confusing and dominating his opponents.
Engineering the Perfect Storm
Usually, Easter vacation is Thursday and Friday—a four-day weekend. Last week, the president declared the holiday would start on Monday, thus giving the country an entire week off. Chavez alleged that the extra vacation time would contribute to energy conservation.
However, most analysts assert that this would not make a significant impact on the energy situation and would deliver a significant blow to the ailing economy.
Why would Chavez give the country an entire week off? If you were interested in staging a coup against yourself, emptying the capital by giving everybody an extra-long holiday would be the time to do it.
Mount Avila National Park, which overlooks the capital of Caracas, has had an unusual number of forest fires this season. While high temperatures and drought are affecting the whole country, Mount Avila has suffered an unprecedented average of five fires per week since the new year. The situation is reportedly now under control, but authorities have completely closed off civilian access to the mountain. What better way to conceal the gathering of Cuban troops—experts in guerrilla warfare—and have them perfectly placed to pounce on the city with little notice?
Currently in Venezuela, advising Chavez on the country’s energy situation, is a member of the Cuban state council, Vice President Ramiro Valdés Menendez. Menendez, a veteran of the Cuban revolution, is no energy expert, but he is an expert on revolution and repression.
Further fueling speculation was the recent spate of audacious robberies of weapons caches from police stations in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas. It seems far too coincidental that on the same day, three police stations were robbed and in all three cases, policemen were stripped of their guns.
The day after the robberies, authorities reported that a sting operation had recovered part the weapons from the Nueva Tacagua metropolitan police station, where the biggest heist had occurred. But nobody could explain why the number of weapons police in the area reported stolen was double the number reported by the Ministry of Justice and Internal Affairs.
Moreover, of the 14 suspects arrested in the sting operation, six were given parole, while the rest were detained. This would seem to be unusually light punishment for attacking a police station.
For gangs, in a country with such a thriving black market in arms, robbing police stations seems to be a needlessly foolhardy risk.
On March 19 the Energy minister asked for the resignation of every director of the country’s national electricity companies thus giving the government absolute control of the nation’s power supply. A convenient blackout at the moment of a coup would make it very difficult for information to spread about what was happening.
On March 25, the government arrested the president of Globovisión–an independent and influential TV station critical of Chavez. A very nervous Guillermo Zuloaga was detained due to “offensive” comments he made about Chavez at the Inter American Press Association meeting in Aruba earlier in the month. Condemnation from the international community came swiftly forcing the government to back down on incarcerating Zuloaga. He was released on parole and ordered not to leave the country—achieving the goal of silencing Zuloaga.
There is no doubt that the political pressure in the Venezuela is mounting each day. Among important members of the government there appears to be an air of nervousness. Among the public there is the sense that something is ready to blow. As events at once ambiguous and ominous take place, Venezuelans are asking, who will pull the trigger first?
From the outside, it appears as though Chavez has no way out. At some point, Venezuela will reach the limit and boil over, creating chaos, which Chavez’s presidency might not survive.
The situation has all of Venezuela speculating about what will happen next. A recent series of events have suggested to some nervous Venezuelans that Chavez may be getting ready to pre-empt the seemingly inevitable explosion.
One way to do so is to engineer a controlled explosion to head off the spontaneous one. The thinking goes that Chavez could be getting ready to stage a military coup and then soundly defeat it. He would thus assert a legitimate right to govern. At the same time he would get a license to exercise absolute control while confusing and dominating his opponents.
Engineering the Perfect Storm
Usually, Easter vacation is Thursday and Friday—a four-day weekend. Last week, the president declared the holiday would start on Monday, thus giving the country an entire week off. Chavez alleged that the extra vacation time would contribute to energy conservation.
However, most analysts assert that this would not make a significant impact on the energy situation and would deliver a significant blow to the ailing economy.
Why would Chavez give the country an entire week off? If you were interested in staging a coup against yourself, emptying the capital by giving everybody an extra-long holiday would be the time to do it.
Mount Avila National Park, which overlooks the capital of Caracas, has had an unusual number of forest fires this season. While high temperatures and drought are affecting the whole country, Mount Avila has suffered an unprecedented average of five fires per week since the new year. The situation is reportedly now under control, but authorities have completely closed off civilian access to the mountain. What better way to conceal the gathering of Cuban troops—experts in guerrilla warfare—and have them perfectly placed to pounce on the city with little notice?
Currently in Venezuela, advising Chavez on the country’s energy situation, is a member of the Cuban state council, Vice President Ramiro Valdés Menendez. Menendez, a veteran of the Cuban revolution, is no energy expert, but he is an expert on revolution and repression.
Further fueling speculation was the recent spate of audacious robberies of weapons caches from police stations in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas. It seems far too coincidental that on the same day, three police stations were robbed and in all three cases, policemen were stripped of their guns.
The day after the robberies, authorities reported that a sting operation had recovered part the weapons from the Nueva Tacagua metropolitan police station, where the biggest heist had occurred. But nobody could explain why the number of weapons police in the area reported stolen was double the number reported by the Ministry of Justice and Internal Affairs.
Moreover, of the 14 suspects arrested in the sting operation, six were given parole, while the rest were detained. This would seem to be unusually light punishment for attacking a police station.
For gangs, in a country with such a thriving black market in arms, robbing police stations seems to be a needlessly foolhardy risk.
On March 19 the Energy minister asked for the resignation of every director of the country’s national electricity companies thus giving the government absolute control of the nation’s power supply. A convenient blackout at the moment of a coup would make it very difficult for information to spread about what was happening.
On March 25, the government arrested the president of Globovisión–an independent and influential TV station critical of Chavez. A very nervous Guillermo Zuloaga was detained due to “offensive” comments he made about Chavez at the Inter American Press Association meeting in Aruba earlier in the month. Condemnation from the international community came swiftly forcing the government to back down on incarcerating Zuloaga. He was released on parole and ordered not to leave the country—achieving the goal of silencing Zuloaga.
There is no doubt that the political pressure in the Venezuela is mounting each day. Among important members of the government there appears to be an air of nervousness. Among the public there is the sense that something is ready to blow. As events at once ambiguous and ominous take place, Venezuelans are asking, who will pull the trigger first?
