The gender gap in politics has widened in the last four years, according to recent polling.
Since women make up a slight majority of U.S. voters, any increase in turnout based on gender could tip the scales of this election, some analysts say.
Others, however, contend that the gap could be narrowing in the final days before the election, with some suggesting identity factors like race and education could play a bigger role in deciding the winner.
Since 1980, women have favored Democrats, while men have gravitated toward the GOP.
Ronald Reagan carried men by a 17-point margin as women backed him and Jimmy Carter by roughly equal numbers, according to Roper Research.
A September survey from The New York Times/Marist Poll found that Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, held an 11-point advantage with female voters, while former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, held a 17-point advantage with male voters.
Harris’s lead with women is equal to President Joe Biden’s numbers in 2020, according to Pew Research, with men voting in roughly equal numbers for both Biden and Trump that year.
“In this one, the surprise would be if it doesn’t set a record, and that would be anything, I believe, over 20 percent,” Lee Miringoff of the Marist Poll told The Epoch Times.
Higher voter engagement this year could be widening the gap, magnifying men’s and women’s existing political preferences.
As Harris and Trump seek to turn out more and more women and men, respectively, that gap grows, Miringoff explained.
“There are two things that are being considered. One is preferences, and that creates the gap,” Miringoff said. “The other is the turnout, and whether one group, one gender, actually becomes a bigger part of the election.”
Women voters also historically outnumber men by 2 to 4 percent in national elections, he added, yielding dramatic impacts if there is any surge in female turnout.
“If women ended up [voting] at 55 percent and men at 45, that would be a big deal,” he said.
Early voting data show that as of Oct. 31 at 4:30 p.m., women accounted for 54.2 percent of early or absentee voters, men accounted for 43.7 percent, and the gender of 2.1 percent of voters was unknown, according to the University of South Florida’s Election Lab.
The data, however, are limited to only six states that provide gender demographics on voters—Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Michigan, North Carolina, and Virginia—which account for less than a quarter of the more than 60 million early and absentee votes cast as of Oct. 31.
Both campaigns are working hard to close their respective gender disadvantages, with Trump reaching out to women and Harris to men.
“I am your protector,” Trump said, addressing women, at a Sept. 23 rally in Indiana, Pennsylvania. “As president, I have to be your protector.”
His safety message has appealed to some women for whom border security is a defining issue.
“What’s important for me is the border,” Katya LaGrow, 45, of Michigan, told The Epoch Times. “I think that a lot of that keeps me up, and I’m worrying about what is coming on to American soil.”
Harris, in shoring up support among men, turned to former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama, who suggested sexism affects the vice president’s lower appeal to male voters while also highlighting reproductive rights.
Samuel Umuma, 58, of Flint, Michigan, told The Epoch Times that Harris’s commitment to protecting access to abortion was important to him for the sake of his family members, saying that he was motivated to vote for Harris for the “good of the whole.”
Recent polling suggests that both campaigns have narrowed their gender disadvantages, including battleground state surveys from Susquehanna Polling & Research.
“I think the point that a lot of the media is missing is the education gap,” pollster Neil Newhouse told The Epoch Times.
In 2020, Biden carried a 24-point advantage among college-educated voters, according to Pew Research.
Race could also impact the race—a recent NAACP survey found just 58 percent of black men and 67 percent of black women support Harris, while Biden carried 92 percent of all black voters four years ago.
The percentage of Hispanic voters who “lean Democrat” fell to 47 percent in 2023 from about 60 percent in 2016, while the percentage of those who “lean Republican” rose to 35 percent from about 25 percent.
With enthusiasm seemingly high among supporters of both campaigns, it’s not clear how the gender gap will play out in this year’s election.
