WASHINGTON—U.S. manufacturing is shrinking, corporate profits are declining and goods are piling up on warehouse shelves. Those trends have elevated concern that a U.S. recession may loom in the next year or two.
Yet in the one area that matters most, the economy has continued to shine: Hiring.
Over the final three months of 2015, employers added jobs at a robust monthly average of 284,000, and the unemployment rate has remained a low 5 percent. Such a trend typically reflects an economy in prime health, not one nearing a recession.
Another solid report Friday from the government on job growth during January could help assuage concerns about a recession possibly nearing. Analysts have forecast that employers added 200,000 jobs.
Yet if the job gain falls far short of that projection, worries about a recession might begin to intensify.
Most analysts say that while the economy may slow this year compared with 2015, an outright recession remains unlikely. Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch have put the odds of a recession within the next 12 months at 20 percent. While still low, that estimate is up from 15 percent last year.
Here are three trends that point to a potential recession — and three that do not:
Manufacturing Slowdown
