Tropical Storm Isaac is likely to become a hurricane by early tomorrow, but storm surges and flooding already pose a significant threat, federal authorities warned Monday.
Isaac was downgraded from a hurricane Sunday, but its size and slow pace could bring disaster to northern states of the Gulf of Mexico, Craig Fugate, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), told reporters in a telephone press briefing.
“There are some aspects of this storm that are very concerning particularly storm surge and ... now potentially heavy rainfalls across the area of impact,” Fugate said.
As of 8:00 p.m. Monday, Tropical Storm Isaac was around 200 nautical miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and strengthening, as it heads northwest at around 10 mph, the National Weather Service reported.
Wind gusts of up to 86 mph were recorded, and the storm is predicted to become a hurricane later tonight or early Tuesday, slowing down as it hits landfall late Tuesday or early Wednesday, the report said.
President Obama signed an emergency declaration for Louisiana late Monday afternoon authorizing FEMA to coordinate relief efforts.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued hurricane warnings for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida, and a state of emergency has been declared in each of the four states.
Fugate said FEMA has already started emergency preparations across all four states by putting in place predesignated management teams, coordinating with the Department of Defense and moving supplies up in readiness.
NHC Director Dr. Rick Knabb joined Fugate on the conference call. He said it is unlikely Isaac would increase to a Category 3 hurricane, but whether the storm heightens or not, flooding was a concern, particularly to inland river systems and low-lying coastal areas.
“Wherever it is people are going to be during the storm, they need to get there tonight,” he said.
Possible storm surges between 6 and 12 feet are predicted for some coastal regions and localized rainfalls could reach to 18 inches.
While flash flooding was a particular concern, Knabb warned that widespread flooding could last for days as rivers try to discharge runoff from heavy localized rains and run into backup from incoming storm surges.
“It is just a dangerous situation that is underestimated,” he said.
Knabb pointed to Tropical Storm Debby, which hit Florida in June and caused extensive flooding and several tornadoes. Isaac is much bigger, spanning an area 200 miles from the center, he said.
Both federal authorities expressed concern that people had become complacent to warnings and evacuation orders.
“Particularly this storm, as big as it is, that impact can occur well away from circulation,” Fugate said adding, “If you are asked to evacuate, don’t wait.”
Katrina Anniversary
The storm threat comes on the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans August 2005, killing over 1,800 people and leaving thousands displaced.
Fugate said lessons learned as a result of Katrina were being applied, particularly regarding intergovernmental cooperation and preparations.
“The biggest lesson we learned is we have to work together as a team at the state level and local and federal level,” he said.
New laws following Katrina allow FEMA to start emergency preparations before an official call is made. “We don’t wait for a state to get hit, we don’t wait until the governor makes a formal request of assistance. We are able to get in and work with that team as we are dealing with the storm threat,” he said.
Fugate warned residents to heed authorities and make contingency plans for an emergency even if Isaac remained a tropical storm.
“We could see some record rainfall events and we need to be prepared for that as well,” he said.
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