When trying to determine buy low and sell high candidates, one of the best things to do is to calculate full season projections, as through numerous NFL seasons, we have established the standard for what constitutes a good season, a great season, and a top-of-the-line, record-setting season for a given player. Generally, players who are on pace to obliterate existing, well-respected records are conspicuous “sell-highs”. On the other hand, you can gauge if the projected full season stats are a bit underwhelming for a given player’s talent level. In any case, we can do the calculations for you in this column while highlighting the relevant numbers.
Note that these full-season projections are calculated based on the a no-injury assumption. One can likewise gauge the likelihood for injury by looking at games-missed in previous seasons.
DeMarco Murray
Through six games into the regular season, Murray already has set an NFL record, joining Jim Brown as the the only running backs to ever rush for 100 yards in the season’s first six games. Murray leads the NFL in rushing by over 200 yards over, with 785.
Current Stats: 159 carries, 785 yards, 6 Touchdowns
Projected Full Season Stats: 424 carries, 2093 yards, 16 touchdowns
16 touchdowns is fairly normal seasonal stat for fantasy’s top back. Meanwhile, 424 carries would be an NFL Record(Larry Johnson’s carry record is 416), and 2093 yards is just off Eric Dickerson’s record of 2105 yards.
Julius Thomas
Current Stats: 24 receptions, 277 yards, 9 touchdowns
Projected Full Season Stats: 77 receptions, 886 yards, 29 touchdowns
Nothing unusual about the receptions or yards. However, 29 touchdowns not only annihilates the record of 17 set by a tight end(Rob Gronkowski), but even eclipses the wide receiver record of 23 set by Randy Moss in his magical 2008 season.
Andrew Luck
Current Stats: 172 completions, 1,987 yards, 17 touchdowns
Projected Full Season Stats: 458 completions, 5299 yards, 45 touchdowns
458 completions is along the same number of completions Peyton Manning made in his record-setting season last year. The full-season yards and touchdowns are not record-setters, but they are very elite numbers. Is Luck that much improved over last year’s 3822 yard, 23 touchdown season?
LeSean McCoy
Two week ago, ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft posted an article on LeSean McCoy’s uncharacteristic early season struggles, and that based off precedent, the chances of a turnaround don’t look positive. Since then, McCoy turned in a disappointing 24-carry 81-yard performance versus the Rams before finally producing with a 23-carry 149-yard performance versus the Giants.
Current Stats: 116 carries, , 422 yards, 1 touchdown, 3.6 yard per carry; 16 receptions, 74 receiving yards, 0 receiving touchdowns, 4.6 yards per reception
Projected Full-Season Stats: 309 carries, 1125 yards, 6 touchdowns, 43 receptions, 197 receiving yards.
Save a 17-touchdown season in 2011, McCoy actually has never been a touchdown machine, not reaching the 10 touchdown plateau in any of his other seasons. And if wasn’t McCoy, a 1125 yard rushing season is not bad at all. The most concerning, and perhaps ‘fluky’ stats, are McCoy’s yard-per-carry and yard-per-reception averages. At his worst, McCoy had a seasonal yards-per-carry average of 4.1(his rookie season). However today, McCoy isn’t just playing in any offense; he is playing in Chip Kelly’s offense, in which he averaged 5.1 yards per carry last season. His yards-per-reception number likewise make no sense. At the very least, he has averaged 6.6 yards a reception over the course of a season.
