JOHANNESBURG—It’s only a matter of time before the BRICS bloc of countries morphs into a “New World Order” set to undermine and rival Western powers on several fronts, including economically and militarily, say analysts.
The 15th summit of the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—began in Johannesburg on Aug. 22, with the probable expansion of the organization topping the agenda.
BRICS already represents 42 percent of the world population and almost a third of the global economy. But it wants more.
“Expansion of BRICS is firmly up for discussion, and BRICS foreign ministers are meeting to chart a way forward with regard to expansion. A definitive statement on expansion will be made towards the end of the summit,” said South Africa’s Minister of International Relations, Naledi Pandor.
She told The Epoch Times: “We are living in an evolving world and we want BRICS to be at the forefront of a new movement designed to represent the interests of developing nations, and of the Global South.
“The multilateral organizations that exist today mostly act in the interests of privileged nations. It’s time for change. We want a fair and just world.”
China, Russia, and South Africa are strongly in favor of adding new members so that BRICS represents what Russian President Vladimir Putin has called a “multipolar world” intended to “break Western hegemony.”
India is resisting expansion, while Brazil is “sitting on the fence,” according to South African BRICS officials who spoke with The Epoch Times.
“We’re not surprised that India doesn’t want a bigger BRICS because India is now an ally of the United States, and India also has many problems with China, we see that with constant border disputes between the two,” said one of the officials.
“The time is coming for India to decide on which side of the fence it is on.”
Professor Danny Bradlow, a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for the Advancement of Scholarship at the University of Pretoria, has been speaking with senior BRICS officials regularly during the past year about the expansion of the group.
“What I’ve heard is that a revamped BRICS would revolutionize the global economy, and give it significant leverage over traditional powers such as the United States and Western Europe,” he told The Epoch Times.
Several BRICS experts, including Congolese economist, Patrick Lukusa, who’s attending the summit, told The Epoch Times they envisaged the first group of new members would be selected based on their “strategic value” and ability to represent “regions” of the Global South.
On this basis, said Mr. Lukusa, strong candidates for membership included Argentina, which together with Brazil would represent Latin America; Nicaragua in Central America; Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates to represent “Arabs” in North Africa and the Middle East; Nigeria and Senegal—which together with South Africa would act for sub-Saharan Africa; Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Russia in Central Asia; and Indonesia and Thailand, which together with India would represent South East Asia.
“Importantly, all these countries are members of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and all are forging closer ties with China and Russia, some even militarily,” said Mr. Lukusa.
“China will of course represent East Asia in a new-look BRICS.”
Mr. Bradlow said an expanded BRICS could collectively own almost 50 percent of all known oil reserves, and 60 percent of all known gas reserves.
“It would represent more than half of the world’s population,” he added.
Chris Devonshire-Ellis, an economist at Dezan Shira and Associates, a multinational group offering services to investors in Asia, said a BRICS organization including present members plus the nations mentioned by Mr. Lukusa would be “formidable.”
“Its combined GDP as of today would amount to about $30 trillion, making it considerably larger than the United States economy and double that of the European Union’s $14.5 trillion,” Mr. Devonshire-Ellis told The Epoch Times.
South Africa’s lead BRICS official, Anil Sooklal, told The Epoch Times that BRICS foreign ministers would this week discuss criteria to be used to determine the selection of additional members.
Mr. Devonshire-Ellis expected a “primary criterion” to be possession of large volumes of natural resources.
“Oil and gas, of course, but it’s possible that BRICS becomes the majority possessor of nearly all global resources. These would include precious metals, rare minerals, energy resources such as coal and solar power, agricultural land, timber, fisheries, and fresh water,” he said.
Mr. Lukusa said based on countries that had signed Belt and Road agreements, and also had very close ties with China and Russia, future potential candidates for inclusion in a “new world order” could include Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Panama in South America; Bolivia, Chile, Cuba, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela in Central America; Azerbaijan in the Caucasus region; Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Central Asia; and Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vietnam in South-East Asia.
“This would have an unimaginable impact on world trade and economics,” said Mr. Bradlow. “Not to mention supply chains. It would mean a seismic shift in everything. The world would literally be a different place. For better or worse.”
Sooklal said BRICS was not, and “would never be,” a “league that is anti-West.”
But, said Mr. Bradlow, with the likes of Belarus, Cuba, Iran, Syria and Zimbabwe among countries interested in joining, this was “a difficult perception to escape.”
“China and Russia, in particular, and sometimes South Africa, have made no secret that BRICS should be the model for rebellion against what they consider to be United States-led Western hegemony, as represented by institutions such as the United Nations and World Bank,” he commented.
Mr. Lukusa said India’s “resistance” to, and Brazil’s “hesitancy” about, expansion, would likely stall efforts to admit new members.
“India is moving more and more towards America and it does not want to be part of anything that causes bad feelings in Washington,” he said.
“Brazil is clear that there should be full conditions, or a proper structure set up, to understand how this expansion is going to take place. Brazil is one of those that feels BRICS could actually be weaker if it takes on a lot of new members.”
Ms. Pandor said only countries who could “advance the BRICS development agenda” would be considered for membership.
Mr. Lukusa said it was “doubtful” any formal decision would be made about possible new members this week, given India’s resistance and Brazil’s hesitancy.
“BRICS will more than likely issue a broad statement that consensus has been reached that the bloc should expand, and this will light the way toward expansion in the future.”
He said increased membership would benefit the BRICS group.
“It’ll allow for more trade to happen; it’ll allow for more countries to join the [BRICS financing mechanism] New Development Bank (NDB). We’ve seen Saudi Arabia being keen on being a member of this bank.”
Mr. Lukusa said the NDB would soon rival the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, “if richer developing countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE start pouring money into it.”
Mr. Devonshire-Ellis said the United States and Europe had been focusing on the war in Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia and China—partly to restrict its activities in the technological arena—while a “much more significant shift in geopolitics, global trade and supply chains had been happening.
“One that would have ’much more profound implications’ in the form of the impending expansion of BRICS.”
