Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Democrat Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the two vice presidential nominees, are set to debate on CBS News tomorrow night.
With fewer than 40 days to go before Election Day, many might wonder if vice presidential debates really move the needle when it comes to the election—and if so, how.
Republican vice presidential candidate, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) speaks at NMC-Wollard Inc. / Wollard International in Eau Claire, Wis., on August 07, 2024. (Right) Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaks at a Biden-Harris campaign and DNC press conference in Milwaukee, Wis., on July 17, 2024. Adam Bettcher, Jim Vondruska /Getty Images
The debate will be the only showdown between the two candidates this year, as is typical for vice presidential nominees.
The candidates present contrasting visions for the country—with Vance representing former President Donald Trump’s “America first” agenda and Walz touting the Biden–Harris administration’s record and his progressive policies as governor.
David Schultz, a political science professor from Hamline University in St. Paul, Minnesota—and a scholar of the vice presidency—said it seemed like both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris were “playing base politics” by selecting Vance and Walz, respectively, as running mates.
Neither are from critical swing states, though both are from the electorally crucial Midwest. Each has a strong appeal to his party’s base: Vance has strong approval among Trump supporters, and Walz was championed by many progressive leaders in the Democratic Party before joining the ticket.
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“At this point, neither of the campaigns are pitching for moderates,” he told The Epoch Times.
Even so, the matchup gives the two candidates a chance to make their strongest appeal to undecided voters in what has already been one of the most unique elections in modern history, particularly with the massive shakeup at the top of the Democratic Party’s ticket following President Joe Biden’s departure from the race.
Still, experts don’t expect many undecideds to be watching the VP debate.
“Debate viewers tend to be among the most politically engaged and [are] thereby likely to have their minds made up well before the debate,” Dustin Carnahan, a communications professor at Michigan State University, wrote in an online post.
Research generally shows that VP picks have a mostly negligible effect on vote shares—and that VP debates tend to have a similarly minimal impact on outcomes.
Aaron Dusso, a political science professor from Indiana University-Indianapolis, told The Epoch Times that VP debates show relatively little impact on polling due to lower viewership.
Pew Research Center released data in June that showed that while 84 million tuned in for the first debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016, only 37.2 million watched the matchup between their running mates, then-Indiana Gov. Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.).
Four years later, 57.9 million tuned in to see Harris debate Pence, down from the 73.1 million who watched the first showdown that year between Biden and Trump.
Carnahan noted that research shows that debate performance—in both presidential and VP debates—can affect undecided voters’ impression of the candidate, put on full display following Biden’s performance in his June debate with Trump.
The debates also give candidates an opportunity to present ideas and policies while also putting them before a national audience that might not know them well yet.
Schultz said that “with the exception of Sarah Palin, there’s no evidence that any vice president in recent history has really impacted the presidential race.”
He was referring to research showing that then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin’s debate against then-Sen. Biden likely cost John McCain support, after her debate performance drew greater attention to Palin.
However, Schultz argued that McCain “was going to lose anyhow [so] perhaps it really didn’t matter in the end.”
Dusso agreed, adding that he believes McCain chose Palin “because he needed a game-changer,” citing the difficulty of overcoming the negative voter sentiment toward President George W. Bush.
Schultz pointed out that in 1988, Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis’s running mate, then-Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) landed a famous jab at former Vice President Dan Quayle.
After Quayle compared his congressional experience to that of President John F. Kennedy, Bentsen replied: “Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.”
While it was a notable moment among vice presidential debates, it did little to prevent President George H.W. Bush’s landslide Electoral College victory that year.
On the other hand, Camille Busette, interim vice president and director of governance studies at the Brookings Institute, believes that the 2020 matchup between Pence and Harris affected that particular election.
She suggested that Harris’s criticisms of the Trump administration’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic resonated with some viewers, saying that Harris presented “real contrasts” between how the two sides would address ongoing economic issues.
Still, both candidates are prepping through mock debates.
Vance recruited Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) to stand in for Walz. Emmer served for years in the same congressional caucus and has been studying Walz’s past performances to prepare.
Walz, meanwhile, recruited Department of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg—who played Pence in 2020—to stand in for Vance.
—Jacob Burg, Joseph Lord
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