Democrat-Leaning Voters Trend Toward GOP: Poll

Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-K.Y.) talks to reporters at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Dec. 14, 2021. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Recent survey data show roughly half of U.S. adults would support a GOP candidate in the run-up to the 2022 midterms, while those who traditionally favored Democrats shifted to Republican-leaning.

Six months away from the November elections, a new poll by NPR/PBS/Marist (pdf) found that 52 percent of Latino voters are more likely to back a GOP candidate in their district if the election were underway, versus 39 percent who would vote for a Democrat.

The poll, conducted from April 19 to April 26, underscores a dramatic swing as a majority of Latino voters favored President Joe Biden, the then-Democratic presidential candidate, back in the 2020 campaign.

Democrats further lost public approval among voters under 45, with 50 percent of those saying they would choose a Republican compared to 40 percent that plan to go for a Democrat. Young Americans tend to lean Democrat. In 2020, 55 percent of those aged 30–49 support Biden, while 59 percent of those aged 18–29 voted for him, according to the Pew Research Center.

The poll shows 47 percent of U.S. adults would support a Republican candidate, while 44 percent said they would vote for Democrats—the first time the GOP has led the poll since they won full control of Congress in 2014. The Republican Party, meanwhile, is holding an edge among independent voters, as 45 percent said to stand by a Republican, with 38 percent saying they prefer a Democrat.

The fresh result is another sign underscoring a difficult election for Biden and the Democrats.

As more than half of voters expressed an unfavorable impression of Biden and 37 percent said they “strongly disapprove” his performance, the president’s job approval ratings lagged over issues such as the domestic economy.

People largely trend toward Republicans on controlling inflation, with 41 percent saying they trust the GOP more compared to 20 percent, less than half, saying Democrats would perform better.

According to the Labor Department, the overall inflation rate over the past year in March hit 8.5 percent (pdf)—the highest in more than 40 years.

Gasoline prices hover around $4.00 a gallon for the least expensive grade at several gas stations in the nation's capital in Washington on April 11, 2022. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The poll surveyed via telephone 1,377 adults residing in the United States, including 1,162 registered voters, and declared a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

The GOP also leads in the polls when it comes to dealing with crime, national security, immigration, and gun rights, results show.

The Biden administration’s decision to end Title 42 expulsions, a policy used during the Trump era to quickly deport illegal immigrants at the southern border, has drawn fierce outrage.

Last month, the Department of Homeland Security reported a record of more than 221,000 encounters at the southwest border in March alone, with arrest numbers reaching the highest in two decades.