Decarbonization Campaign Will Raise Flight Costs for Consumers, European Air Travel Experts Warn

Ryanair aircraft are pictured at Stansted airport, northeast of London, on Aug. 20, 2020. Adrian Dennis/AFP via Getty Images

Commercial aviation industry members in Europe are expecting the costs of air travel to rise amid a campaign to transition away from fossil fuels.

European airline industry members are aiming to reach net-zero aviation carbon emissions over the next 27 years as part of a plan called Destination 2050. The carbon-reduction effort is largely centered around swapping out fossil fuels for more sustainable alternatives, but industry experts say the plan will increase the costs for airline travel and part of the carbon reduction will be the simple result of a decreased demand for flights.

In a report on Monday, the U.K. strategy collective Sustainable Aviation estimated that reduced air travel demand will account for about 14 percent of the airline industry’s reduction in CO2 emissions.

Sustainable Aviation estimated that even with slightly higher costs for air travel, people will still want to fly and the airline industry will add around 250 million passengers by 2050.

Among the carbon-reduction technologies embraced by the Destination 2050 plan are hybrid-electric aircraft, low-carbon drop-in sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and hydrogen-powered aircraft. Where airlines cannot eliminate carbon emissions, Destination 2050 plans to offset those remaining emissions with reforestation, soil carbon capture, and other carbon-capturing innovations.

“Each technology and measure of Destination 2050 contributes toward the goal of net zero but also to the expenditures by the aviation sector,” states a March research report (pdf) by SEO Amsterdam Economics.

The SEO Amsterdam Economics analysis estimated premiums paid toward new aircraft technologies, air traffic management, sustainable aviation fuels, and carbon removals will cost to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 will cost €820 billion (about $895 billion) over the 32-year period. The Destination 2050 plan (pdf) anticipates 100 percent of the added costs from decarbonization will be passed on by airlines to the consumers.

Sustainable Fuel for Aircraft

SAFs represent one of the main focuses in decarbonizing the airline industry. The sustainable fuels can be derived from plants, such as corn grains and algae, and produce less carbon. These SAFs also represent a “drop-in” solution, meaning they can be blended in with traditional jet fuel and used in existing aircraft with minimal modifications necessary.

SAFs are estimated to be able to reduce existing aircraft emissions by 65–80 percent. But these SAFs are, for the time being, harder to produce than traditional jet fuel.

According to a 2021 report by Aviation Today, SAFs cost about four times as much as conventional jet fuel, and SAFs make up less than 1 percent of the fuel currently available in the market.

Proponents of SAFs are hopeful that a combination of government incentives, market investments, and time will expand SAF production and mature the technology so that will become more affordable. Sustainable Aviation is calling on the U.K. government to work toward a commitment to have five SAF plants under construction in the country by 2025, establish an industry-funded price stability mechanism to go along with an SAF mandate, and to have U.K. policymakers prioritize access to sustainable feedstocks for making SAFs.

“This is the critical decade where aviation must prove it will decarbonize,” said Sustainable Aviation chair Matt Gorman. “Our updated Net Zero Carbon Road Map shows that we have a clear, credible path to take the carbon out of flying. Through a combination of sustainable aviation fuel, more efficient aircraft and airspace, zero-emission planes, and carbon removals, we can protect the huge benefits of aviation for future generations without the carbon cost.”

Decarbonizing US Airlines

Last year’s Inflation Reduction Act includes incentives to help reduce the carbon footprint of the U.S. aviation industry, such as SAF tax credits.

Adoption of SAFs remains slow within the United States. The Federal Aviation Administration set a goal more than a decade ago to use a billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel annually by 2018, but has only begun using about 15.8 million as of last year, Environment & Energy News reported.

In November 2022, a team of Arizona State University researchers published a study finding that 23.2 million hectares of existing low-quality marginal agricultural lands in the United States could grow enough miscanthus grass to meet the liquid fuel demands of the U.S. aviation sector fully from biofuels—an amount expected to reach 30 billion gallons per year by 2040.

The ASU researchers believe a major driving factor for why SAF production is so costly is because of the opportunity cost of growing the plants needed to produce biofuels.

Miscanthus, also known as switchgrass, may be an ideal crop for creating SAFs because it has a lower cost to grow than corn, which is currently the most widespread source of biofuel ethanol. The ASU researchers believe commercialization of this crop has lagged due to past uncertainty about its agricultural potential.

The ASU researchers estimated that switchgrass-derived biofuel could be produced and sold at an average cost of $4.10 per gallon. This price is above average for aviation fuel, which typically sells for about $2 gallon, but is within the $2–5 per gallon price range for jet fuel seen throughout 2022.

From NTD News