Meterologists at AccuWeather.com, a private weather agency, predict Western Canada is in for a very cold winter, though Environment Canada says the prediction might not be accurate.
AccuWeather.com announced last week that the coming winter could be one of the top three coldest in the past 20 years in Vancouver, Victoria, and the rest of B.C., while Edmonton will likely continue to have freezing weather for the fifth consecutive winter.
“Overall for the winter we will be well below normal [temperatures],” says Paul Walker, a senior meteorologist at the weather agency.
“Looks like it’s going to be quite cold in B.C.”
Walker says snowfall will likely continue to be lower than normal in the Prairies. The exception is southwestern Alberta, which will have more snow this year.
The winter in Eastern Canada won’t be as cold as the west, the agency says, though the region could get a few blasts of freezing cold weather throughout the season.
David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, cautions however that seasonal forecasts cannot be stated definitively, particularly at this early stage.
“In my business, you try to be as general as possible,” he says. “Seasonal forecasting is always a bit of a crapshoot in a way. We really, truly don’t know what the season ahead is going to be [like].”
Phillips explains that their models based on water temperatures are giving a “hint” that winter in Canada, particularly Western Canada, will be colder than normal, but there are other factors involved and water temperatures alone can’t be relied on to make this prediction.
“You can sometimes be totally wrong … there is no guarantee with seasonal weather [forecasts],” he says.
“What I would say is our models are showing that it looks like it will be, for most of the country, colder than normal.”
Phillips says Environment Canada’s precipitation models “seem to be hinting at, or leaning toward, perhaps less participation in some areas but more in other areas,” while warning that precipitation models are not very reliable.
“But you wouldn’t go out and, say, plan your holidays or head to Arizona or Hawaii because it’s going to be the winter from hell; this is just bad science. Nobody has models to be able to suggest that,” he says.
