China’s Contradictory COVID Data Conceals an Astronomical Death Toll: Analysis

A call for accountability as China's numbers continue to contradict

Patients on stretchers are seen at Tongren hospital in Shanghai on Jan. 3, 2023. - A senior doctor at Shanghai's Ruijin Hospital has said 70 percent of the megacity's population may have been infected with Covid-19 during China's huge surge in cases, state media reported on Jan. 3. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images

News Analysis

Massive COVID-19 outbreaks have swept China since last December, following Beijing’s move to abruptly end the pandemic measures it strictly enforced for three years. In late January, amid Lunar New Year celebrations, a top Chinese health official revealed that over 80 percent of China’s population had been infected with the virus.

Despite widespread reports of leaked internal documents that suggest high death tolls in the country, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has continued to release official data that appears illogical and unconvincing to the public and experts worldwide.

Given the Chinese regime’s long history of falsifying data on almost all major disaster events, the World Health Organization (WHO) on Jan. 4 once again publicly asked Beijing to share specific and real-time data on the new outbreaks sweeping the country, reiterating the “importance of transparency.”

In a subsequent briefing, the WHO emphasized that current data released by the CCP does not reflect the true impact that COVID-19 has had on the country’s hospital admissions, acute care admissions, and especially its death toll.

This article analyzes the drastic discrepancy between data released domestically by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) and the data that China provided to the WHO, particularly during the one-month period from Dec. 8, 2022, to Jan. 8, 2023.

Relevant reference links and screenshots of data used are included in the report.

Data Discrepancy: Dec. 8, 2022

On Dec. 8, the China CDC’s website reported no new deaths from COVID-19 and reported a cumulative death toll from the virus of 5,235.

The same day, the WHO released the numbers provided to it by China. Those numbers showed 48 new deaths and a cumulative death toll of 30,653.

Data comparison of China's cumulative COVID-19 death toll as of Dec. 8, 2022. The Epoch Times

COVID-19 data released by the China CDC claimed a cumulative death toll of 5,235 as of Dec. 8, 2022, and no new deaths on that day. Captured from China CDC Official Site

China's cumulative COVID-19 death toll of Dec. 8, 2022, reported to the WHO. Screen Capture from WHO's official site

Data Discrepancy: Jan. 8, 2023

On Jan. 8, the China CDC reported three new deaths and a cumulative death toll of 5,272.

Meanwhile, data given to the WHO by China showed 3,229 new deaths as of Jan. 8, and a cumulative death toll of 76,674.

Data comparison of China's cumulative COVID-19 death toll as of Jan. 8, 2023. The Epoch Times

COVID-19 data released by China CDC claimed a cumulative death toll of 5,272 as of Jan. 8, 2023, and 3 new deaths that day. Captured from China CDC Official Site

China's cumulative COVID-19 death toll of Jan. 8, 2023, reported to the WHO. Screen Capture from WHO's official site

Data Discrepancy Over One Month

Data released by the China CDC for the whole time period from Dec. 8, 2022, to Jan. 8, 2023, recorded 37 new deaths from the virus.

However, data reported to the WHO by China for that time period indicated 3,229 new deaths.

Data from the China CDC showed the cumulative death toll rose slowly: from 5,235 on Dec. 8 to 5,272 on Jan. 8, with only 37 new deaths over the one-month period.

However, the data reported to the WHO showed the cumulative death toll rose sharply: from 30,653 to 76,674, with 46,021 new deaths in one month.

This means the one-month cumulative death toll reported to the WHO—46,021 deaths—was about 1,243 times the number released by China CDC—a mere 37 deaths.

A comparison of China's COVID data shows a 1,243-time discrepancy in death toll numbers in a one-month period ending Jan. 8. The Epoch Times

A comparison of China's COVID-19 data shows a discrepancy of 46,000 in daily death toll numbers on Jan. 8. The Epoch Times

Data Discrepancy in Confirmed Cases: Jan. 5, 2023

On Jan. 5, the China CDC released data showing 9,548 new confirmed COVID-19 cases.

The same day, data reported to the WHO by China showed an astronomical discrepancy: 1,250,579 new confirmed cases.

A comparison of the two numbers shows a massive 1.24 million discrepancy in daily COVID-19 infections.

Data released by China CDC claims that there were only 9,548 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Jan. 5, 2023. Captured from China CDC Official Site

China's COVID-19 data on Jan. 5, 2023, reported to the WHO, show an over 1.2 million increase in new confirmed cases. Screen Capture from WHO's official site

Massive Contradiction in Domestic Reports of Confirmed Cases

The China CDC reported on Jan. 25 that “the number of people infected with COVID-19 in hospitals nationwide reached a peak of 1.625 million on January 5, 2023.”

However, the China CDC reported elsewhere that there were only about 92,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Jan. 5.

China CDC's data stated that the number of people infected with COVID-19 in hospitals nationwide reached a peak of 1.625 million on Jan. 5, 2023, while claiming that there were only about 92,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of that day. Captured from China CDC Official Site

Since not all COVID-positive patients are hospitalized, the number of confirmed cases should be far greater than that of hospitalized patients, not less.

The massive discrepancy between the two figures was so puzzling and contradictory as to be utterly nonsensical.

Discrepancy: Data on Hospitalized Patients

There was a further discrepancy in numbers late in January. The China CDC number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 on Jan. 30 was 144,000.

Meanwhile, the number provided to the WHO for that date was 28,000 people hospitalized with COVID-19: a discrepancy of about 116,000.

A comparison of China's data on hospitalized COVID-19 patients as of Jan. 30, 2023, showed a 116,000 difference in numbers. The Epoch Times

Accountability for Fraudulent CCP Data

The official CCP pandemic data has been under increased scrutiny both domestically and internationally, and it is clear that there are significant loopholes and contradictions in the data released by different departments. The huge discrepancies between the internal China CDC data and that released to the WHO further support the thesis that China’s official numbers were largely falsified—most likely to cover up the scale of the pandemic.

In addition, the China CDC has reduced the frequency of reporting from daily to weekly, and even floated the idea of monthly reporting. This has left the Chinese public confused about the current state of the pandemic in the country. It appears that the Chinese regime has no intention of sharing the actual data with the Chinese people and the world.

The New York Times published an article on Dec. 30, saying that China has turned its COVID-19 numbers into a “scientific guessing game” for Western epidemiologists. China’s official COVID-19 numbers were simply improbable, the article said, as all models by Western scientists predicted a much more severe pandemic outbreak.

Forbes suggested on Jan. 25 that China’s incomplete COVID-19 data is causing confusion worldwide about the scale of the pandemic. The Forbes article also raised questions about the effectiveness of China’s previous “zero-COVID” policy as the country hits its pandemic peak. The gaps and discrepancies in Beijing’s data suggest that the regime is significantly under-reporting its numbers and misleading the public.

WHO’s health emergencies chief Dr. Michael Ryan suggested on Jan. 4 that the Chinese regime has underrepresented its COVID-19 numbers amid a massive surge of the pandemic in the country. The United States and the European Union have repeatedly called on the CCP to be transparent about their COVID-19 pandemic data.

Beijing’s unusual U-turn in pandemic policy may indicate that the CCP knew the death toll from the pandemic overall was far beyond its previous estimation. Last December, due to a multitude of factors, China realized that many people were dying despite its zero-COVID policy. On the surface, the regime claimed to be relaxing its pandemic management, but in reality, it was simply giving up on its failed “zero-COVID” policy altogether.

From the initial cover-up of COVID-19 origins to its extreme “zero-COVID” policy, to its current “do nothing” approach, the CCP should be held accountable for its disregard for life and for falsified data aimed at misleading the world.

Funeral Home Data: Deaths Could Have Topped 6 Million in December

According to a recent Epoch Times investigation, many funeral parlors in China have large numbers of bodies waiting for cremation. The largest funeral parlor in Shanghai, which formerly handled only about 90 cremations per day, now cremates 400 to 500 bodies daily. 

Since early January, according to an NTD report, at least 37 crematoriums have put forward bidding documents for furnace construction on government websites. And some funeral parlors are building large open-air cremators to cope with skyrocketing demand.

On Dec. 14, early in the current outbreak, a funeral home employee told The Epoch Times that there was a week’s backlog in cremations.

“We are very busy every day, and we have never been so busy,” the employee said.

“There are more people being cremated every day than before, and the appointment calls are too many for us to handle. Many people are queuing up [for our service]. We don’t have any rest time here at all.”

Beijing’s Babaoshan Funeral Home operates 19 cremation furnaces and is Beijing’s only facility for specialty cremation, with wider, longer, and taller furnaces for tall or obese corpses.

From Dec. 8 to Jan. 12, Babaoshan’s business volume was almost seven times the volume of cremations in 2019.

Sean Lin is a virologist and former lab director at the viral disease branch of the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research. Looking at the many reports of crematoriums operating around the clock, he estimates that if all of China’s reported cremation furnaces were running 24/7, they would have incinerated about 6 million bodies in the month-long period.

However, that figure is likely only about half of all deaths, as cremations made up less than 60 percent of Chinese funeral procedures in 2021. Taking that into account, the death toll could have reached 10 million by now, Lin said.

Sean Tseng contributed to this report.