Every offseason general managers everywhere forget how many free agents turn into busts. The short-sighted memory has led to some unsightly deals that can cripple a team for years to come. For every C.C. Sabathia or Cliff Lee deal, there’s a Chone Figgins, Alfonso Soriano, or Aaron Rowand mistake.
Here are the five worst deals still current in baseball, beginning with the fifth most-crippling deal:
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka: Boston, 6 years $103 million—Matsuzka’s $103 million includes the mammoth $51 million fee the Red Sox paid his former Japanese team. Even if that number isn’t included in the total, his last three seasons are still a bust—with another one still remaining.
Dice-K’s second season (18-3, 2.90 ERA) in 2008 was far and away his best in Boston. Had he continued that he would have been worth the price of his deal—though still not a bargain. Even then, the fluke season contained an ominous sign as he still led the league with 94 walks in just 167 innings.
The last three injury-riddled seasons have produced a 16-15 record with a combined ERA of 5.03 in just 40 starts.
Why it’s here: The $103 million commitment has yielded one good season out of five with one to go. With just one good season under his belt, it beats out dishonorable mention contracts given to Aaron Rowand, Chone Figgins, and even Alfonso Soriano—but just barely. Soriano’s deal still has some scary amounts left to be paid, but he’s at least shown some power in his time at Wrigley.
4. John Lackey: Boston, 5 years $82.5 million—After eight seasons as the Angels’ workhorse starter, Lackey went to Boston following the 2009 season and struggled a bit in 2010 with a 4.40 ERA in his 33 starts.
The Red Sox clearly would have taken that performance over his 2011 season which saw him post an ERA of 6.41 in 28 starts. Though the season had off-the-field distractions for the just-turned 33-year-old, recent Tommy John surgery will wipe out his 2012 season for which he'll be paid in excess of $15 million for recovery. After that the Sox will still be on the hook for more than $30 million to a 34-year-old fresh off major arm surgery ... yikes.
Why it’s here: In a close call of Epstein mistakes Lackey’s final four seasons project much worse in comparison to Dice-K’s disappointing tenure. Boston got a well-below-average starter in ‘11 and will get nothing in 2012. The following two years hold little hope for a mid-30’s-aged pitcher returning from surgery AND who didn’t even have it together previously.
3. Barry Zito: San Francisco...
3. Barry Zito: San Francisco, 7 years $126 million—The Giants signed Zito to this monstrosity of a contract after the 2006 season. Zito was 28 at the time and had led the league in games started four times in six years in Oakland. After winning the 2002 Cy Young (which really should have gone to Pedro Martinez) he was not quite as impressive in his final years as an Athletic. His ERA those last three seasons combined was a very pedestrian 4.05.
Still the Giants signed him and he’s clearly regressed in San Fran. His record is a combined 43-61 through five seasons highlighted by his league-high 17 losses in 2008. This past season he made 13 appearances on the mound going 3-4 with a 5.87 ERA while pocketing $18.5 million.
Why it’s here: Tough call over Lackey. San Francisco, though plays in such a pitcher’s park, that it makes his career 4.55 ERA as a Giant comparable to Lackey’s 5.26 ERA as a Red Sock at Fenway against the AL East. Zito’s deal is also the longer and more expensive of the two.
2. Alex Rodriguez: New York (AL), 10 years $275 million—A-Rod famously opted out of his contract during the 2007 World Series, after his MVP season, setting off a media firestorm for stealing the Red Sox/Cardinals postseason thunder. New York vowed they wouldn’t re-sign him since they lost all money due them from Texas per the conditions of the trade four years earlier.
They quickly changed their minds (maybe lost their minds) though and re-signed the 32-year old, three-time MVP to a bloated deal that no one could/would ever match.
The first three years of the contract saw a good, but not great performance from the future Hall of Famer. But then this past season Rodriguez dropped to a .276 average with 16 home runs and 62 RBIs in just 99 games—all while being paid roughly $32 million for his services.
Now at 36 years old, there’s little expectation that he'll be the yearly MVP-candidate that his $20 million-plus annual salary over the next six years should actually command.
Why it’s here: The remaining years that will take him through his 42nd birthday for the price of more than $120 million do not look promising. Although Zito has performed much worse overall, he should remain a serviceable number-four or -five starter in the league for two more years while Rodriguez' projection looks pretty grim.
1. Jayson Werth: Washington, 7 years $126 million—The 32-year old Werth hit just .232 with 20 home runs and 58 RBIs in his FIRST season under this contract as a National. There are still six years and roughly $116 million remaining on this mistake-of-an-agreement for the one-time All-Star though. And while it’s difficult to predict player performance, most athletes don’t peak in their mid-to-late 30’s – unless you have the magic formula that Bonds/Clemens somehow had. Considering even his peak seasons never saw his RBI totals reach 100 or his batting average end above .300, the future looks pretty bleak for Washington.
Why it’s here: Werth’s deal gets the slight nod over A-Rod’s considering Werth’s prime was never near A-Rod’s and his inferior production this past season (58 RBIs in 150 games) couldn’t be blamed to injury. Should A-Rod recover he has a higher ceiling despite his age.
