Districts in states bordering Mexico will play a significant role in determining control of the House.
Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona share a border with Mexico to the south, and were the entry point for most of the 10 million illegal immigrants who entered America in the past few years.
Unsurprisingly, illegal immigration was a top issue for most people interviewed across the borderlands. Inflation came in at the No. 2 concern.
But others said their lives haven’t been impacted negatively under the Biden–Harris administration. For them, this is an election about abortion access, women’s rights, and who is fit to hold office.
How people living in borderland states vote stands to be crucial in the upcoming presidential race, and could determine which party controls Congress. The presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to impact down-ballot races in the House.
Border districts in these states are home to substantial Hispanic populations—a longtime Democratic bloc that’s considered up for grabs in this race as Trump greatly expanded his margins with the group in 2020. Many who spoke to The Epoch Times across the three states said that they and their family will be voting Republican for the first time.
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82-year-old Minerva Perez lives in Brownsville, Texas with family about five miles from the Mexican border.
After voting for Democrats all her life, she said this year she’s voting straight Republican. She believes Trump can reduce sky-high food prices and stop illegal immigration.
Her entire family is voting for Trump this time too, she said.
“I want changes,” she said. “I’m going to vote Republican.”
Three congressional races in the borderlands are considered toss-ups.
Texas’s 34th Congressional District, which sits squarely at the southern tip of Texas, is home to one highly watched rematch between incumbent Rep. Vincente Gonzalez (D-Texas), and former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores.
Gonzalez defeated Flores by 8.5 points in 2022. But now, the race is only rated “Lean Democratic” by the Cook Political Report.
Flores, a legal immigrant from Mexico who is married to a Border Patrol agent, won a special election to fill the vacant seat temporarily in 2022 but lost to Gonzalez in the general election.
Yet, there is a shift going on in South Texas. Several Latinos who have consistently voted for Democrats told The Epoch Times they intend to vote Republican in November.
82-year-old Michelle Lopez, 47, spoke to The Epoch Times in the small town of Donna, Texas. She said she’s voting for Trump for the first time, and her family, including her cousins, are voting for him as well. She and her family are worried about the direction the country’s going.
Both Hispanic and white Texans in the south of the state mentioned inflation and the rising cost of groceries.
In Las Cruces, New Mexico, a small town just north of El Paso, Texas, the political tug-of-war for the borderlands was also on display.
New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District is a lot like Texas’s 34th in demographics.
There, Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-N.M.) is fending off a challenge from former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell.
Herrell held the seat for a single term that ended in 2023, after she was narrowly ousted by Vasquez, known as a left-wing Las Cruces City Council member who advocated to defund the police, by just 1,350 votes.
Just outside Las Cruces, Susan Seggerman, 70, was sitting on her front porch as the sun set, the golden light giving way to purple shadows. She’s supporting Trump.
Prices were her main concern: she said that food and electricity prices are “the worst it’s ever been.”
“We’re having a hard time,” Seggerman said. “I’ve been crying all day.”
She’s also noticed rising crime in her area, and was the victim of thievery herself. She worries it’ll only get worse as more illegal immigrants enter the country.
In Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani, the incumbent, faces Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel in a toss-up race.
The winner will likely ride to victory on the coattails of Trump or Harris, depending on who carries the state.
Along with key House races in New York, California, and the Rust Belt, these districts will be crucial to House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) hopes to maintain and grow his majority.
—Darlene Sanchez, Joseph Lord
BOOKMARKS
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