Before the lights dimmed on Nikki Haley’s farewell speech to supporters, the two presumptive major-party nominees began to court her supporters.
As Ms. Haley was about to formally announce her exit from the presidential race, former President Donald Trump wrote on social media that he would “like to invite all of the Haley supporters to join the greatest movement in the history of our Nation.”
President Joe Biden also opened the door.
“Donald Trump made it clear he doesn’t want Nikki Haley supporters,” President Biden said in a statement, referring to a comment by President Trump that donors who kept giving to the Haley campaign would be permanently barred from the MAGA movement.
“I want to be clear: There is a place for them in my campaign,” President Biden wrote.
Media outlets have often reported on Ms. Haley’s strength in the suburbs, among independent voters, and among voters with a college degree or higher. These reports imply that Ms. Haley has a sizable hold on undecided voters or those uncommitted to either President Biden or President Trump.
However, is that the case? How many of her primary voters would have ultimately voted for President Biden in the general election anyway? And how many of those self-identified independents are still undecided?
The Epoch Times has combed through the Edison Research exit poll data in New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, California, and Virginia. The exit data was commissioned by a consortium of media outlets, which used it to compare President Trump and Ms. Haley and showcase her strengths.
Demographics
Ms. Haley has a much higher percentage of independents and Democrats among her supporters, based on exit polls in the five states mentioned above.Compared to the overall Republican primary voter makeup, Ms. Haley’s voters tend to contain a larger share of self-identified independents and Democrats, consistent with the types of primary contests in the various states.
New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Virginia primary races were open; voters registered to any party could vote for any single candidate. North Carolina’s primary race was partially closed; only unaffiliated voters and registered Republicans could participate in the Republican contest. The California Republican primary race was closed to only allow registered Republican voters.
In the New Hampshire and Virginia open primaries, Ms. Haley attracted 6 percent and 14 percent more Democrats, respectively, among her supporters than the overall level of all Republican primary voters. Both states voted for former Vice President Joe Biden in 2020. In California, 31 percent of Ms. Haley’s Republican voters self-identified as independent, which was on par with the overall level.
However, President Trump has an equal, if not stronger, hold on suburban voters.
In the five primary states—New Hampshire, South Carolina, California, North Carolina, and Virginia, President Trump had a much higher percentage of suburban voters than Ms. Haley did in North Carolina and had the same percentage as she did in the other four states.
Ms. Haley edged ahead in urban areas, suggesting that Ms. Haley’s strength in the suburbs exists only in heavily Democratic-leaning areas, such as northern Virginia’s Fairfax County.
In northern Virginia, she failed to carry the neighboring Loudoun County, which usually votes in sync with Fairfax County in general elections but has more independents.
President Biden carried Loudoun County by a 25 percent margin and Fairfax County by a 40 percent margin in the 2020 general election.
In North Carolina, President Trump beat Ms. Haley in every county. His winning margins were narrower in three deep-blue counties in the Charlotte and Raleigh metropolitan areas.
In the closed California Republican primary, President Trump defeated Ms. Haley by a 61-point margin, carried evenly across counties.
Ms. Haley’s high percentage of self-identified non-Republican voters and her strength in deep-blue suburbs begs the question: How many self-identified independents are Democrats?
Fifty-two percent of Haley primary voters voted for President Biden in the 2020 general election, according to the survey.
Gary Moses, a resident of Douglas County, Colorado, voted for President Biden in the Democratic primary on Super Tuesday, the day before Ms. Haley withdrew her presidential bid.
“I look forward to her continuing and sending a message about Donald Trump because we couldn’t have any better person out there helping the Democrats,” he told The Epoch Times.
“This is a closed ballot here in Colorado, but I would have crossed over and voted for her.”
Mr. Moses lamented that the Republican Party no longer had “McCains out there” before adding that he hadn’t voted for the late senator in his run against Barack Obama in 2008.
In the Republican camp, some voters don’t believe that Ms. Haley could beat President Biden in the general election despite some poll results giving her a bigger chance than President Trump.
Donald Fraser, a 71-year-old retired naval officer who lives in Loudoun County, Virginia, said he voted for President Trump on Super Tuesday.
“John McCain did not defeat Obama. Mitt Romney did not defeat Obama. Nikki Haley, in my mind, is just another John McCain, another Mitt Romney,” he told The Epoch Times.
“So, she can say all she wants, but what’s happened before would happen again with her.”
Economy and Family Finances
Ms. Haley’s voters also seem to be faring well in the current economy, according to their views of the nation’s economy and family finances.About half of the Haley voters in New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Virginia considered the economy “good.” One-third said the same in South Carolina. California was the outlier, with not a single poll respondent rating the economy as “good.”
Under the current economy, one-third of Haley voters in New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia said their family financial situations were “getting ahead” and about another 60 percent “holding steady.” While no Californians said their families’ financials were “getting ahead,” over two-thirds said they were “holding steady.”
Haley voters respect her as “level-headed,” “smart,” and “a good alternative.”
Capitalizing on this advantage, Ms. Haley often criticized President Trump for his style and personality.
“All he’s doing is talking about himself. And that’s the problem. It’s not about him; it’s about the American people,” she said at a rally on March 1, to audience applause.
James Smith of Charleston, South Carolina, said he voted for Ms. Haley in the South Carolina primary because he believes that she can do better than both the current president and former President Trump.
“Character counts. Character is the most important thing in leadership. And she has it. She’s had tough times and kind of proven herself. And I don’t think Mr. Trump or President Biden has the character to lead well,” Mr. Smith, who voted early, told The Epoch Times on March 6.
The most important quality to Haley voters in Virginia was “has the right temperament,” as noted by Rex Shipley of northern Virginia.
On Super Tuesday, he told The Epoch Times that Ms. Haley and President Trump have similar policies but different approaches and styles.
Seeking an Alternative
Many Haley voters don’t want either President Biden or President Trump. Haley voters whom The Epoch Times spoke to had varied responses, but one common element: They don’t like President Biden, but they like President Trump less.
This sentiment was shared by Haley supporters Kurt Kehlenbeck, 64, and Diane Derusha, 75, who both live in South Carolina.
“I don’t want either old man in the White House,” Ms. Derusha said of Presidents Trump and Biden.
Mr. Kehlenbeck is a Democrat who said he voted for Ms. Haley in the primary and would have voted for her in the general election if she had won the nomination. Otherwise, he plans to vote for Biden.
Ms. Derusha is a Republican who said she refuses to vote for President Trump.
Gracita Novak, a registered Republican from Montgomery County, Maryland, drove to Washington on March 1 to attend Ms. Haley’s rally. The Republican primary in her state is scheduled for May 14.
She said her reason for supporting Ms. Haley is “very simple: because she’s got a good head on her shoulders.”
“We need a better choice. It’s sad that in both parties, we really don’t have a whole lot of choice, and we need people with a level head, smart, and can see through, and be able to give an olive branch and to be able to work things out,” Ms. Novak told The Epoch Times. “And it’s sad politics are no longer that way.
“I really think that this country was willing and open to [a] third-party [candidate]. I think she [Haley] could go for it.”
Ms. Haley has been noncommittal about making a third-party bid. She also declined to endorse President Trump, saying that he will have to earn the votes of her supporters.
“It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him, and I hope he does that. At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people. This is now his time for choosing.”
