In a weekend of upsets, six teams who entered Round 17 in the Australian Football League in the ladder’s top eight failed to defeat opponents.
While it was inevitable that two of those six teams had to lose because four in the top eight (Geelong Cats – Hawthorn Hawks and Sydney Swans – Adelaide Crows) were playing off against each other, for the other four teams the importance of bouncing back this weekend couldn’t be higher.
Geelong’s victory over a brave Hawthorn by 11 points and the Western Bulldogs fade-out shock loss to Carlton by 28 points gives the Cats a 3-match lead atop the ladder and most likely the AFL Minor Premiership title.
In the past two weeks, the Cats have defeated both the ’Dogs and the Hawks who had emerged this season as their likely challengers. Scarily for the rest of the competition, the Cats have now won 35 out of their last 37 matches – a win/loss record that underlines their dominance.
Of significance, North Melbourne defeated Melbourne to move from eighth to fifth, while St Kilda’s shock loss to West Coast saw them tumble out of the eight due to an inferior percentage. Like Carlton, Richmond kept their finals hopes alive (with a win over Brisbane), as Essendon’s defeat of Collingwood gives them the slimmest of mathematical chances.
Of insignificance, to the finals, Fremantle defeated Port Adelaide in South Australia.
While there is still a lot of footy left in the season, the ladder after the first six matches bears a striking similarity to the ladder after results from the sixth-last round. Curiously, albeit in a different order, the same teams were perched in the eight back in Round 6 – Geelong, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Sydney, North Melbourne, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions then St Kilda, Richmond Carlton, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Fremantle, West Coast, Melbourne – in the same order are the three teams just outside the eight and likewise the bottom three.
Why is Round 6 of curiosity you may ask?
The trend over the last seven years at Round 6 suggests that at least six out the top eight teams will play finals, with seven teams in four of those years making the finals at that season-defining point.
While that trend couldn’t be more on track, Adelaide looks the shakiest despite defeating Sydney by 24 points last weekend, breaking a 5-match losing streak and squeezing their way back into the eight at the expense of St Kilda.
With just five weeks remaining in the season, at least eleven teams are in contention for the eight as up to six are vying for the valuable fourth position and double chance, from here on the intensity each week will be akin to finals.
Apart from Geelong, who appear invincible, on current form seven of the eight matches this weekend could go either way with five that could re-shape the final eight.
Round 18
Friday, August 1
Collingwood vs Hawthorn (MCG) 7.40pm
Saturday, August 2
Essendon vs Melbourne (MCG) 2.10pm
Adelaide vs Carlton (AAMI Stadium) 2.40pm
Geelong vs Richmond (Telstra Dome) 7.10pm
North Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions (Gold Coast Stadium) 7.10pm
Sunday, August 3
Western Bulldogs vs Sydney (Manuka Oval, Canberra) 1.10pm
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide (Telstra Dome) 2.10pm
Fremantle vs West Coast (Subiaco Oval) 2.40pm
AFL Round 17/22
Team % Points
Geelong 151.69 64
W. Bulldogs 123.13 54
Hawthorn 123.08 52
Sydney 119.96 42
N. Melbourne 97.80 38
Collingwood 113.47 36
Adelaide 106.18 36
Brisbane 105.27 36
St Kilda 100.63 36
Richmond 97.27 34
Carlton 95.97 32
Essendon 86.02 28
Port Adelaide 92.04 20
Fremantle 91.77 16
West Coast 67.11 12
Melbourne 64.61 8
