Democrats gathered at the state fairgrounds in Columbia, South Carolina, to await the results of their party’s primary election. President Joe Biden, the only candidate to campaign in the state, won handily, as expected.
From the podium, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), 83, took a call from President Biden, who thanked South Carolinians for their support. Applause followed, with congratulations all around.
As the modest crowd dispersed, Mr. Clyburn spoke with the press. The veteran congressman and staunch Biden ally said the president’s support among black voters remained unshakable.
“The best illustration of that is that he got 96 percent of the vote in this primary,” he said. “But his largest percentage—over 97 percent—was in the town of Orangeburg, where there are two HBCUs [historically black colleges and universities] and a community college.
“I go to an African American barbershop. I go to an African American Church. Joe Biden is as strong with African Americans as he has ever been.”
Mr. Clyburn’s view defies the findings of several recent polls and contradicts a trend that has been observable for several years. Namely, that Democrats have a problem with black voters, especially men, and Hispanic voters, too.
Over the past eight years, minority voters have slowly but steadily migrated away from associating themselves with the Democratic Party, a movement that appears to be led by men.
In simplest terms, analysts say, it amounts to a classic case of leaders being blind to generational change, taking their constituents for granted, and failing to deliver on the most basic function of government: to create conditions in which people can thrive.
It is unclear whether Democrats can halt—or at least counter—this decline in minority support before the November election. What is clear is that the demographic composition of both parties is in flux. These shifting political allegiances could significantly affect both the 2024 election and the future of party politics.
Steady Migration
Support for the Democratic Party among black and Hispanic voters has been eroding for years.The percentage of black voters who “lean Republican” rose from single digits to 19 percent over the same period.
The percentage of Hispanic voters who “lean Democrat” fell from about 60 percent in 2016 to 47 percent in 2023, while the percentage of those who “lean Republican” rose from about 25 percent to 35 percent.
A similar shift occurred among Asian American voters. Some 30 percent of Asian Americans voted Republican in 2020, according to Gallup. That’s up from 18 percent in 2016, according to exit polling. In California, the shift was even more pronounced with 54 percent of Asian American voters favoring President Trump in 2020, according to the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund.
“It shows up consistently in survey after survey, and it also shows up in actual electoral results going back to 2016,” Matthew Wilson, a professor at Southern Methodist University, told The Epoch Times.
“And there’s just real movement and more diversity in the electoral outcomes in [predominantly black and Hispanic precincts] than had been true in the past. So I think Democrats who are inclined to write it off as artificial are engaged in wishful thinking, because it shows up in multiple different indicators.”
And the shift is being driven by multiple factors, observers say, which may vary by ethnic group.
Failure to Improve
A signal issue that cuts across ethnic lines is the perceived failure of the Biden administration to improve the economic condition of the people.“Unfortunately, Biden can’t hide from this economy, and minorities are losing trust in it,” Charlie Kolean of the R.E.D. political action committee told The Epoch Times. “Minorities see that big government is no longer helping them but hurting them.”
That matches the finding of Whitley Yates, diversity engagement director for the Indiana Republican Party.
“For the black community in general, they have been lied to consistently. They have been promised things every election cycle and have been used by the Democratic Party to remain in positions of power without any type of progress for those communities,” Ms. Yates told The Epoch Times.
Black unemployment was low and median household income was rising under President Trump, according to Ms. Yates, but President Biden was able to appeal to black voters based on promises of student loan relief and the legalization of marijuana, seen as a criminal justice issue by many black Americans.
While hundreds of thousands of student loans have been partially paid or forgiven under President Biden, the economic life of many black citizens has worsened.
“The way this economy has impacted the black community has been catastrophic. Inflation and the consumer price index have gone up astronomically, which has hurt businesses,” Ms. Yates said. “People began to realize that it was a lot of smoke and mirrors.”
To some extent, this shift in allegiance plays out along generational lines, at least among black voters, according to Marcurius Byrd, a Democratic organizer from Columbia, South Carolina.
“Our generation didn’t grow up with the things that a lot of people who lived through the Civil Rights era did,” Mr. Byrd told The Epoch Times. “The Democratic Party has given them more victories within their lifetimes. We haven’t really seen that in the younger generations.”
For many black voters, the question for Democrats appears to be “What have you done for me lately?”
“There’s a thirst for someone who’s not going to just talk about what’s wrong but who is going to produce tangible policies that people can feel,” Ms. Yates said.
“Biden’s biggest worry is that black voters see him as not delivering on voting rights, responsible for inflation, and failing to stop Israel’s devastation of Gaza,” Donald Nieman, professor of history and provost emeritus at SUNY–Binghamton, told The Epoch Times.
Mutual Concern Over Immigration
The Democrats’ choice to deal with illegal immigration primarily as a humanitarian issue rather than a matter of national security has angered some black and Hispanic voters, who see themselves as bearing the brunt of the issue.“Blacks and Latinos tend to be working class and are thus disproportionately hurt by inflation and immigration. The undocumented immigrants flooding the country tend to live in their neighborhoods and compete with them for jobs,” Henry Olsen, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, told The Epoch Times.
The two ethnic groups may share a concern over illegal immigration, but the issue affects them in different ways.
Hispanics who emigrated legally from Central and South American countries tend to be grateful for the opportunities they found here and are wary of socialism. They see the United States as a land of opportunity, and many have worked hard to be successful.
“[They] are very upset with what’s happening at the southern border because a lot of the things that they were getting away from in Mexico and these other places are being poured into this country in droves,” Ms. Yates said, including drug trafficking and cartel activity.
“They feel as though it homogenizes them into a group that they don’t want to be involved. Because now they have to prove to people that they are here legally.”
At the same time, many blacks object to what they see as deferential treatment given to people who illegally entered the country.
“It’s causing some racial tension between the black community and the Hispanic community,” Ms. Yates said. “One lady told me, ‘They won’t even open up the Section Eight list for us to get housing, but they’re paying all that rent [for illegal immigrants].’”
Gallup reported that 79 percent of Asian Americans believe the administration has done a poor job of handling the illegal immigration crisis.
Abortion is a significant issue for Hispanic voters, who tend to be either Roman Catholic or Evangelical and very much pro-life, which could fuel the movement away from the Democratic Party.
Men and Messaging
“The data shows black males, in particular, are moving faster to Trump for a variety of issues including the perceived two-tiered justice system,” Mr. Nieman told The Epoch Times.Ms. Yates concurs.
“I would say black men are the tipping point of this movement,” she said.
Beyond their frustration with the Democrats’ failure to deliver on some promises, the party’s messaging has been repellent to many of them.
When Stacey Abrams ran for governor of Georgia in 2022, political activist Al Sharpton took to the airwaves to support her candidacy.
“I literally have black men calling my radio show saying, ‘Well, we’ve got enough black women in power ... I don’t know if I want to vote for Stacy Abrams,’” Mr. Sharpton said during an MSNBC interview.
“Who would not be proud of Stacey Abrams, unless you’re so insecure as a man.”
That is an example of poor messaging by Democrats, according to Ms. Yates.
“The Democratic Party does a terrible job of communicating, specifically to black men,” she said, noting that the party lost voters because they “spoke down” to them.
Mr. Byrd has also noticed that black men are more likely than black women to support President Trump.
“I’ve known more black female Republicans than men. Though I have seen more black men voting for Trump,” he said.
In 2020, 95 percent of black women voted for then-presidential candidate Mr. Biden, while 87 percent of black men did so, according to Pew Research. Although there’s a gender gap, more black women are now favoring President Trump. Fully 11 percent of black women in battleground states have a preference for President Trump, according to a recent Wall Street Journal poll.
“This is probably less of a race-based thing and more of a gender-based thing,” Mr. Byrd said, theorizing that men may be more inclined to favor a strong candidate who displays dominant personality traits.
“We’ve been fed a lot of likable politicians,” Ms. Yates said. “But what we’re realizing is that likable politicians do not lead to anything.”
Black men appear to be looking for Mr. President, not Mr. Rogers.
Democratic Party messaging must be improved, Mr. Byrd said, and discussions are underway about how to do that. He sees a disconnect between “how the messaging is coming out and how they feel about the messaging.”
That reality is sinking in with Democratic leaders.
A group of campaign strategists who helped win Georgia and Michigan for President Biden in 2020 recently offered a model for pulling more black voters into the party in 2024, The Associated Press reported.
“The days of the symbolic fish fry and [a] one-time church visit are over,” the strategists wrote. “Black voters have always required an approach to voter engagement as diverse as the black voting coalition.”
Michael Tyler, the campaign’s communications director, said, “The campaign is designing comprehensive and robust programs in battleground states to mobilize and engage black voters.”
That includes targeted digital ads and outreach programs in black communities.
Impact on November
President Biden carried Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the “Blue Wall,” by margins ranging from just 0.6 to 2.8 percent. Much of that difference was made by minority voters.“Democrats are rightly terrified at the apparent erosion in their margins among black and Hispanic voters,” Mr. Olsen said. “Any significant drop off in their margins or in the overall level of minority turnout dooms them to defeat.”
President Biden may have even bigger electoral problems, according to Patricia Crouse, a professor of political science at the University of New Haven.
A consistent percentage of Democrats, mostly younger voters, have cast protest ballots in recent primary elections to call attention to the Biden administration’s policy concerning Israel and Gaza.
“You’ve got 11 to 15 percent of [Democrats] voting ‘uncommitted,’ using it as a protest vote,” Ms. Crouse told The Epoch Times. “That is a huge problem for him.”
That would be a worst-case scenario: losing 10 percent of black voters in swing states, plus another 10 percent due to protest voting.
Yet it is unclear how these two groups—minority voters disappointed with the Democratic Party and other Democrats upset by U.S. foreign policy—will ultimately affect the presidential election.
“We'll see, when people actually go to vote in November, whether Republicans are able to get close to 20 percent of the black vote,” Mr. Wilson said. “If they do, that would be huge. That would be something that has not happened in the past century.”
Mr. Nieman believes that the defection of minority voters has probably peaked.
“It was very slight movement, and there aren’t likely to be many more black conservatives who are moveable,” he told The Epoch Times.
Perhaps the most significant factor will be whether either disaffected group votes at all.
“My feeling is that they will simply opt out, that they just won’t vote in the general election,” Ms. Crouse told The Epoch Times.
A November 2023 survey by GenForward revealed that 20 percent of black and Hispanic and 16 percent of Asian voters would not participate in an election contest between Presidents Biden and Trump.
The same survey revealed that 36 percent of Hispanic, 17 percent of black, and 19 percent of Asian voters would vote for President Trump. And 42 percent of Hispanic, 63 percent of black, and 57 percent of Asian voters would vote for President Biden.
The Politics of Class
Either way, the filtering of minority voters out of one party into another is likely to shape electoral politics for years to come.Ms. Crouse wonders if the days of the two-party system are numbered.
“I think what you’re going to see is that the lines [between the parties] are becoming blurred in terms of what the party stands for and how it matches up with voters,” she said.
“I think eventually it’s going to shift toward more of an individualized approach where candidates have to campaign on the issues that they believe in and that align with the voters. I just don’t see the more established type of party that we used to have.”
In that case, political alignment may be determined more by class than by race, Mr. Wilson believes.
“It is working-class blacks and Hispanics who are more drawn to the Republican Party for some of the same reasons working-class whites have been drawn to the Republican Party,” he said. “So as class becomes a more significant variable in American politics, race in turn becomes a less significant variable.”
Democratic voter James Nettles, 90, of Harlem, New York, might be inclined to agree.
Asked whether he thought President Biden cared enough about issues that concern black people, Mr. Nettles told The Epoch Times, “Shouldn’t he be looking out for all people, not just black people? I thought color had nothing to do with it.”
Mr. Nettles was noncommittal about his November vote.
“I would like to think about it, to see how things come along,” he said.
