5 Things to Expect From Tonight’s GOP Debate

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock

News Analysis

It’s debate No. 4, and four Republican candidates will take the stage in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on Dec. 6.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will duke it out during the two-hour event broadcast by subscription television network NewsNation between 8 and 10 P.M. Eastern.

The race’s clear front-runner, former President Donald Trump, will again be conspicuously absent, but he will no doubt come up often during the discussion.

Unlike with the previous debates, the former president isn’t planning any counter-programming. He will instead attend a fundraiser in Hallandale Beach, Florida.

According to Alan Schroeder, a professor emeritus in the School of Journalism at Northeastern University, the debate “could move the needle, but probably not enough to make a huge difference in terms of the nominee.” He is the author of the 2016 book “Presidential Debates: Risky Business on the Campaign Trail.”

Mr. Schroeder told The Epoch Times that President Trump is “so far ahead” of both Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley that a strong performance from either of them on Dec. 6 may not matter very much.

David Schultz, a distinguished professor at Hamline University, agrees.

“I doubt the debate in Tuscaloosa changes much of the direction of Haley or DeSantis for Iowa in terms of public opinion or support,” he told The Epoch Times.

This late in the pre-primary season, with less than six weeks to the Iowa caucuses, Americans may be fairly indifferent to tonight’s debate. But what should those who tune in look out for?

A Smaller and (Possibly) Tighter Discussion

The first two debates during this cycle proved somewhat chaotic, partly because there were so many candidates on stage.

A low point came during the second debate when Fox News Business moderator Dana Perino asked the candidates whom they would “vote off the island”—in other words, who they would force out of the race.

Workers install a banner at the University of Alabama ahead of the fourth Republican presidential debate in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Dec. 5, 2023. JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images

“Are you serious?” Ms. Haley asked.

“I’ll decline to do that with all due respect,” Mr. DeSantis said.

“I’m not doing it,” Mr. Ramaswamy said.

Mr. Christie took the bait: “I vote Donald Trump off the island right now.”

But the third debate, which was scaled back to five participants and opened with strict ground rules, ran more smoothly.

The four-person debate on Dec. 6 may be even tighter still. Pay attention to how well the moderators balance discipline with open dialogue.

And look for participants to raise questions about how Mr. Christie’s polling allowed him to qualify under the RNC’s tougher standards for the latest debate.

Although the onetime leader of the Garden State has consistently polled below the threshold needed to make the stage, a Trafalgar Group poll released on Dec. 4 placed him at 6 percent nationally. Yet the additional polling he would have needed to qualify under the RNC’s rules is murky.

Mr. Schroeder said Mr. Christie “needs to make it happen or get out.”

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), who made the cut for the third debate, suspended his campaign soon after it took place—and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who last appeared during the second debate, dropped out of the race on Dec. 4.

Republican presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) speaks during the third Republican presidential primary debate in Miami on Nov. 8, 2023. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who last appeared in a debate in August, is still hanging on.

More Sparring on Foreign Policy

As in the past three debates, Ms. Haley and Mr. Ramaswamy are expected to fight over the United States’ place in the world.

“Clearly, Nikki Haley and Ramaswamy have some antagonism back and forth,” Mr. Schroeder said.

Mr. Ramaswamy may brand the former Trump administration official a “neocon” again, as he did during the third debate in Miami.

Ms. Haley, meanwhile, may accuse her rival of seeking to abandon Ukraine, Taiwan, and other partners and allies of the United States, perhaps even working in what has become a signature line: “It’s not that Israel needs America. America needs Israel.”

While the former South Carolina governor has taken flight in the polls and is now closely watched by wealthy donors, Mr. Ramaswamy has faded, according to some opinion research.

It remains to be seen whether the monied businessman’s eight-figure ad buy in key early states and intensive campaigning will change things ahead of the first state-level contests of 2024. His campaign made the news last week when one of his advisers left to work for the Trump campaign in Nevada.

Supporters of former President Donald Trump carry signs past a campaign bus of Republican presidential candidate businessman Vivek Ramaswamy in Milwaukee, Wis., on Aug. 22, 2023. Scott Olson/Getty Images

The businessman may have more incentive than ever to distinguish himself from the three others onstage by taking jabs at Ms. Haley. She, meanwhile, stands to gain by targeting his foreign policy views, rather than President Trump’s somewhat similar views.

The stakes are only rising for the United States amid the Israel–Hamas war, which threatens a wider flare-up in the Middle East.

On Dec. 3, the Pentagon said that multiple commercial vessels and a U.S. warship had come under attack in the Red Sea. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels took credit for assaulting the commercial vessels but omitted any mention of the USS Carney.

The U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Carney transits the Suez Canal, Egypt, on Oct. 18, 2023. Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau/U.S. Navy Handout via REUTERS

Look out for how any disputes between Ms. Haley and Mr. Ramaswamy are handled by the moderators. This time around, they are Eliana Johnson of the Washington Free Beacon, Megyn Kelly of SiriusXM’s Megyn Kelly Show, and NewsNation’s Elizabeth Vargas.

“This one is all conservative journalists,” Mr. Schroeder said.

The three-woman panel is very different from the set of three men Mr. Ramaswamy suggested as moderators in Miami: “Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, and Elon Musk.”

Mr. Musk attended a Ramaswamy fundraiser earlier this year.

DeSantis in Trouble

The moderators and other candidates may draw attention to recent shakeups in a Super PAC supporting Mr. DeSantis’s campaign, Never Back Down.

Adam Laxalt, the former attorney general of Nevada who chaired Never Back Down, resigned from the PAC on Nov. 26. Chris Jankowski, previous head of Never Back Down, resigned just weeks before that.

“Never Back Down’s main goal and sole focus has been to elect Gov. Ron DeSantis as president. Given the current environment, it has become untenable for me to deliver on the shared goal, and that goes well beyond a difference of strategic opinion,” Mr. Jankowski said in a statement provided by a spokeswoman for Never Back Down.

The long-term polling trend for Florida’s governor doesn’t look good—and some of his major donors have pivoted to Ms. Haley.

In Cedar Rapids on Dec. 2, President Trump speculated that Mr. DeSantis’s campaign may be finished.

Mr. Schroeder noted that although Ms. Haley has generally benefited from the debates, Mr. DeSantis “has underperformed.”

Yet the Florida governor can point to some key endorsements, particularly in the Hawkeye State. Iowa’s Republican governor, Kim Reynolds, and more than 40 of Iowa’s state legislators have backed him, as has evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats.

(L–R) Republican presidential candidates Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Nikki Haley speak with president and CEO of The Family Leader Bob Vander Plaats at an event in Des Moines, Iowa, on Nov. 17, 2023. Jim Vondruska/Getty Images

“People forget Iowa is not a primary and people don’t really understand that caucuses operate fundamentally different,” radio host Eric Erickson wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, in which he argues that Mr. DeSantis will probably win Iowa. “You have to want to show up in the snow; you have to stay a while; when your first choice gets tossed, you go with your second choice.”

Mr. Schroeder said the Dec. 6 debate could lift Mr. DeSantis in Iowa.

“Clearly, DeSantis has staked a lot of his energy and his money on winning Iowa, so a good performance or a better performance ... could conceivably give him a little boost there,” he said.

Mr. Schultz, of Hamline University, said he doesn’t think the debate will matter much in the Hawkeye State.

“We are already into the holiday season, and I am skeptical if many Republicans in Iowa are paying close attention to this upcoming debate.

“Second, Iowa is a caucus and it is more about mobilization than anything else and the real issue is which candidates have a better ground game,” he said.

“What the debate could do is decide whether Haley or DeSantis get any more money from big donors.”

Haley Under Scrutiny

Indeed, Ms. Haley’s rise should make her a target, too. Of course, if past debates are any guide, other candidates may find it easier to attack a decreasingly relevant contender, Mr. Ramaswamy, over foreign policy, though likely not over his claims that the United States is a purely propositional “idea” rather than a place, people, or existing culture.

One vector of attack is the endorsement Ms. Haley garnered from the Koch network’s organization, Americans for Prosperity, traditionally a bastion of anti-interventionist libertarianism.

Chris Maidment, who led grassroots operations for the organization, has claimed that he was fired for speaking out against the endorsement.

“I will never vote for Nikki Haley. Not once. My children deserve better than to be drafted into some war overseas,” Mr. Maidment wrote on X.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Americans for Prosperity for comment.

Look to Ms. Haley to argue for her electability, foreign policy experience, and credibility as an accountant as the United States’ national debt continues to deepen.

Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks to potential voters during a campaign event in Pella, Iowa, on Oct. 21, 2023. Scott Olson/Getty Images

Why You and Not Trump?

Although President Trump won’t be in Tuscaloosa, his growing dominance could prompt an obvious question to his rivals: Why you and not Trump?

The moderators may ask versions of that question, and the candidates will no doubt ask that of each other.

Relatedly, the hosts may challenge participants to discuss the former president’s legal troubles, including special counsel Jack Smith’s federal case alleging he interfered in the 2020 election.

Although the Republicans vying with President Trump for the nomination have all found ways to criticize him, most have been averse to questioning the basic legitimacy of his candidacy, perhaps in part because MAGA voters now make up such a significant part of the Republican base.

Watch out for any interesting questions from Ms. Kelly, whose interactions with then-candidate Trump in 2015 made headlines at the time. Watch out for more blunt answers from Mr. Christie.

All participants in Tuscaloosa will no doubt feel comfortable criticizing incumbent President Joe Biden.

The Republican National Committee’s latest presidential debate starts at 8 p.m. EST on Dec. 6.