Today, voters will head to the polls for three races in Florida and Wisconsin, which will have substantial implications for the future beyond the current contests.
In Florida, voters will cast ballots for members of the House in two deep-red district special elections as the House remains narrowly Republican.
Voters in Wisconsin, one of the most important swing states at the national level, are set to choose a new judge for the state Supreme Court, a contest that both sides believe could have national implications.
Analysts see the two contests—some of the first held since President Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in November—as key bellwethers of voter sentiment on the new administration.
Here’s what to watch for as results come in.
The House contests in Florida have the potential to have the most immediate impact on national politics in a best-case scenario for Democrats—who are hoping for a long-shot victory in the two deeply Republican districts.
The seats in Florida’s First and Sixth Districts were left open after now-former Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz, both Republicans, vacated their seats to pursue the roles of attorney general and national security adviser, respectively.
Though both won their reelection in 2024 by more than 30 points, the opposition is putting up a multimillion-dollar fight.
Trump has backed the two GOP contenders: Florida Chief Financial Officer and Fire Marshall Jimmy Patronis in Gaetz’s district and state Sen. Randy Fine for Waltz’s district.
Patronis will face Democrat Gay Valimont in Florida’s First District, while Fine will be facing off against Democrat Joshua Weil to replace Waltz in the Sixth District.
Republicans maintain a substantial registration advantage in both districts, aside from the already-heavy GOP lean, but Democrats insist they have a shot.
Democrats have touted their fundraising hauls, which saw them outraise both GOP candidates, according to Federal Elections Commission reports filed on March 20 before a pre-election deadline.
With the House currently split 218–213 in Republicans’ favor, every seat counts for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who can currently spare just two votes.
The results of these contests could, in the long term, help reshape the balance of the House if Democrats can manage an upset in what are conservative meccas in the increasingly Republican-majority Sunshine State.
If Republicans take the seats, it would give them an effective three-vote majority until two vacant Democrat-leaning seats are filled. If Democrats managed an upset and took both, it would reduce Republicans to an effective one-seat majority on close votes.
Observers are also awaiting the results of Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court election.
Trump in 2024 eked out the narrowest victory of his electoral sweep, winning the state by less than a percent.
The race has seen record-breaking funding as liberal and conservative donors have spent more than $81 million in a contest both sides say will shape the future of the state and the nation.
Vying to replace outgoing Justice Ann Walsh Bradley in the April 1 election are Brad Schimel, a Republican-backed county judge from Milwaukee’s western suburbs, and Susan Crawford, a Democrat-supported jurist from Madison.
While the race is technically nonpartisan, candidates can make their opinions known by commenting on issues publicly. Currently, the seven-member panel includes four liberals, counting Bradley, and three conservatives—meaning that the outcome of the race will determine the political bent of the state judiciary.
Conservatives have described the race as a battle for the future of the state and of the country. Musk and others have said that if liberals retain their current 4–3 majority on the court, congressional district maps will be redrawn to favor Democrats, potentially changing the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Thus, the state-level race has won significant national attention.
Schimel, who served as Wisconsin attorney general from 2015 to 2019, has been endorsed by Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
Crawford has the backing of the state’s Democratic party, former President Barack Obama, the Wisconsin teachers’ union, Planned Parenthood, the AFL-CIO, and the four Wisconsin Supreme Court justices composing the court’s liberal wing.
—Joseph Lord, Jacob Burg, TJ Muscaro and Lawrence Wilson
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