Back during the lead-up to the 2019 federal election, a number of observers remarked that Justin Trudeau’s first four years as prime minister had been long ones. He’d already racked up a lot of scandals and carried more baggage than other leaders after a single term.
However true that was then, it’s even more so now. And all signs indicate that 2023 is going to be a rough year for Trudeau.
Trudeau is less popular than a lot of news stories let on. When the Liberal leader first won in 2015 with a commanding majority, one of the factors at play was that people were simply growing tired of seeing Stephen Harper in office after 10 years. Trudeau was once the beneficiary of this phenomenon, but now he’s turning into the one who is wearing out his welcome.
Don’t forget, Trudeau lost the popular vote in 2019 and then lost it again by a worse margin in 2021. Conservative leaders Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole both scored their party more actual votes than Trudeau, who now governs with a razor slim minority of 32.65 percent. (O’Toole secured 33.74 percent, which was 200,000 more votes than Trudeau.)
This isn’t an argument that the system is broken and we need electoral reform though, which is what we’d be hearing non-stop if the results had been reversed. No, it’s just a reminder of how tone deaf it is when Trudeau puts forward a policy that’s divisive, because it’s not like he has a broad mandate.
One would think a well-advised response to such waning popularity is to start governing from the middle. But it appears that Trudeau’s thinking these days is to ram through deeply ideological legislation that’s designed to throw red meat to the Liberal party’s narrowing base.
The current firearms legislation is a good example. For a number of years, urban and suburban voters would always fall for the bogeyman of gun control. They’d see the tragic headlines of shootings in the United States and, because they have no real involvement with or understanding of firearms in Canada, give two thumbs up to more gun laws in Canada. That no longer appears to be the case.
Now, urbanites have become increasingly savvy to the fact that no law further tightening the screws on law-abiding gun owners is going to deal with the horrendous crimes happening in the GTA involving already illegal weapons.
Another growing liability is Trudeau’s multi-pronged assault on the online realm, where the Liberals are desperate to bring in laws that give the government greater say and control over the internet. Companies like YouTube are fighting back, and non-partisan experts have been unrelenting in their critiques of the flaws in the legislation. Trudeau’s cynical claims that only he can protect the Canadian public from poorly defined “hate speech” don’t seem to be resonating.
It’s also unlikely that the new year will see Trudeau step away from the relentless frenzy with which he pursues his other great passion, climate change legislation. It’s almost every week that a new program or law is introduced that seeks to micromanage Canadians’ lives in the name of reducing emissions. In December, we saw the plastic bag ban come into effect along with the announcement that the feds would regulate the percentage of electric vehicles car manufacturers must sell. Canadians may soon feel that Trudeau is putting too much focus on climate edicts right as we’re set to enter a recession.
On that note, all eyes are on the economy right now, and it’s hard to see that going in the Liberals’ favour. The struggle with inflation continues, and the impact of interest rate hikes are yet to be truly felt. The predictions of just how many Canadians are going to be subject to significantly higher mortgage rates in the months ahead are worrisome. Combine that with the rising cost of goods and the fact that most people will not be getting raises that make up for their increased costs.
Election speculation is a favourite pastime of Ottawa pundits, and they’re currently caught up in asking whether we’ll see one in the months ahead. It’s hard to imagine though, given all of the above, that Trudeau would actually want to try his luck. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will be the most formidable opponent the Liberal campaign machine has seen in ages. If they think their usual tactics will work on him, they’re in for a surprise.
Besides, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh seems quite comfortable propping up the government. Trudeau may just run out the clock on this current term, pushing it as far out as he can.
Either way, the year ahead will likely be a rough one for Trudeau, where the big-picture issues don’t go in his favour and his popularity continues to decline.
