Capitalizing on the American strategic defeat in Afghanistan, the Chinese regime has stepped up incursions into Taiwan’s airspace in recent weeks.
Is US Support a Sound Basis for Taiwan’s Deterrence of China?
Since 1979, the United States has recognized the PRC as the sole legal government of China under the “one China” policy, acknowledging that Taiwan is part of China. But while the United States maintains formal diplomatic relations with the PRC, it also has maintained unofficial relations with Taiwan (officially known as the Republic of China). This was codified in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, which contains these three key points:• Reaffirms as a commitment of the United States the preservation of human rights of the people of Taiwan. • Declares that in furtherance of the principle of maintaining peace and stability in the Western Pacific area, the United States shall make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capacity as determined by the President and the Congress. • Directs the President to inform the Congress promptly of threats to the security or the social or economic system of the people on Taiwan, and any danger to the United States interests arising from such threats. Specifies that the President and the Congress shall determine the appropriate action in response to any such danger.
Since 1979, every U.S. administration has reaffirmed its commitment to this Act. It is believed that the Biden administration is committed to the Taiwan Relations Act, too. And of course, Biden’s ever-vigilant (and some say ever-compromised) national security and diplomatic team have loudly “put China on notice” for their continuing “intimidation” of Taiwan. White House press secretary Jen Psaki declared: “We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan, and we have an abiding interest in peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. That’s why we will continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability.”
Time for a New Deterrence Strategy
Oct. 10 is Double Ten Day in Taiwan: the 110th anniversary of the Wuchang uprising in 1911 that triggered the Xinhai Revolution, which ended the Qing Dynasty and two millennia of dynastic rule in China. Also referred to as National Day, this would be a great opportunity to announce a comprehensive deterrence strategy aimed squarely at Beijing. And just to make the point more poignant to the CCP, the strategy could be organized according to the three components of the Three Warfares strategy, which was officially “endorsed by the CCP Central Committee and the Central Military Commission in 2003,” according to a report by the U.S. Office of of the Secretary of Defense. Turnabout is fair play!
Here are some of the elements in a potential deterrence strategy divided among the Three Warfares, with an objective to demoralize and cause doubt in the minds of the PLA decision makers:
• Invite the United States to station additional military forces temporarily in Taiwan (and on a rotational basis), as was begun during the Trump administration. Would the Chinese regime be willing to kill Americans in an attack on Taiwan? • Invite the United States to deploy the first overseas detachment of Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles to Taiwan at the earliest possible date. The Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) is trailer-mounted (mobile) and has a range of at least 1,724 miles, which would put a damper on PLA operational planners and serve U.S. national security interests. • Use the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act and the ongoing PLAAF incursions into the Taiwan ADIZ to renew the request for the F-35 stealth aircraft and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system. • Continue to advertise the deployment of the “Yun Feng” (Cloud Peak) medium-range surface-to-surface missile and future variants/improvements, which was confirmed here.
Media• Conduct a coordinated media campaign with other countries in the region to expose CCP/PLA aggression, including reciprocal media agreements to ensure widespread coverage. • Publicize widely all joint operations with foreign military units: before, during, and after. • Leverage sympathetic media around the world in an integrated campaign to expose Chinese intimidation. • Conduct and widely publicize nation-to-nation/leader-to-leader talks with countries in the region; also with European Union countries and the United States.
Legal• Build on the recent Japan-Taiwan security talks to sign a mutual defense treaty. Japan is already examining options in the event Taiwan is attacked by the PLA. Other related actions with Japan: expand military contacts and joint operations among all services; facilitate reciprocal port visits of naval ships; consider stationing of JSDF personnel on Taiwan (ideally an F-35B aircraft detachment, including maintenance and logistics support). • Encourage neighboring countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, Australia, and Malaysia to create a new security alliance aimed at countering the Chinese regime’s encroachment on territorial waters and other aggressive moves. This could include regularly scheduled joint naval and coast guard operations in contested areas. • Invite continued deployment of British, French, and German navies to the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait for freedom of navigation operations in support of the provisions of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and as a deterrent to PLA Navy aggression in the region.
