Twenty years after the Sept. 11 attack, the question remains as to whether the mission in Afghanistan achieved its objective of eradicating terrorism.
However, the initial success didn’t last, Weiner said, “although al-Qaeda never resumed significant operations in Afghanistan, the organization metastasized, and lethal variants of the organization arose in” other countries in the Middle East and elsewhere. Also, other terrorist groups such as ISIS emerged, he said.
Al-Qaeda had at the time of the attack a “symbiotic relationship” with the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which effectively controlled most of the country, Weiner said.
Who Are the Taliban?
Some of those groups are closer to ISIS, while others are locals who want some peace and stability, Akrami said in a conversation at Warsaw Institute, a Poland-based think tank.
In the past, the Taliban allowed bin Laden to operate in Afghanistan, and the group has a very deep ideological connection with Islamist and radical groups around the globe, Akrami said. In his opinion, countries shouldn’t recognize the Taliban or maintain any political relationship with it because “it’s very dangerous for the future of the world.”
Akrami believes that other countries such as China, Russia, Iran, or Pakistan cannot exert much influence on the Taliban. That’s not because of the Taliban’s politics, but because of their ideology, he said.
The Taliban are an ideological group, and their ideology is based on Sharia law, and they won’t accept any other ideology, Akrami said.
“The Taliban structure is a bit different than what the other governments are. So we cannot expect that the Chinese influence can change the behavior of Taliban.”
The political leadership of the Taliban most of the time needs to ensure support from local Taliban forces and will be unwilling to take any action without their support, Akrami said.
ISIS in Afghanistan is different from ISIS groups in Syria and Iraq, according to Akrami. It’s a more intelligent group, in his opinion, acting as “intelligent proxy fighters in the region” and heavily influenced by Pakistan.
If the Taliban doesn’t want to accept responsibility for an attack, they would say ISIS did it, and ISIS would claim responsibility, Akrami said.
Afghanistan has historically never had a strong nationalist state, the analyst said. Moreover, a quarter of the country’s territory is covered by high rocky mountains with big caves that create favorable conditions for guerrilla wars, he said.
The analyst believes Afghanistan wasn’t defeated militarily, but politically.
“Afghanistan military was able to fight for long term. We had around 370,000 police and army. So we had around 45,000 commando forces. ... And in most parts of Afghanistan, the army didn’t fight with the Taliban. They just give the areas to the Taliban and left.”
Akrami thinks Afghanistan’s collapse began with the negotiations between the United States and the Taliban in Qatar. He considered these negotiations a strategic mistake by NATO and America because it helped the Taliban, a terrorist organization, to boost its image as a strong force respecting people’s rights, Akrami said.
There could be other important reasons for Afghanistan’s collapse, but there’s not much information about it, Akrami said, hoping that eventually, more will become known.