Japan’s former prime minister Taro Aso said Tuesday that the United States, Japan, and other nations need to show a strong resolve to defend Taiwan if it is attacked. Mr. Aso made the remarks during a three-day visit to Taiwan. He is the most senior-level Japanese political official to visit Taiwan in over 50 years.
Mr. Aso’s remarks voiced Japan’s increasingly outspoken attitude about the situation in the Taiwan Strait, which, he said, is “gradually tilting toward a time of emergency.”
In a recent interaction with British media, Japan’s deputy defense minister declared that should the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) exercise force against Taiwan, Japan will extend its support to Taiwan in some capacity.
In an interview with Britain’s Daily Telegraph last month, Japanese State Minister of Defense Toshiro Ino said that Japan is likely to offer some level of support to Taiwan if the CCP initiates military action. However, the nature of this support, be it defense equipment or other forms of logistical aid, remains undefined.
Just weeks earlier, a Japanese think tank organized its third large-scale war game simulation, focusing on possible CCP aggression toward Taiwan. For the first time, Taiwan was invited to participate.
War Game Simulations Amid Potential Taiwan Crisis
The Japan Forum for Strategic Studies (JFSS), a prominent Japanese think tank, conducted its third war game simulation on July 15 and 16, focusing on a hypothetical Taiwan crisis involving CCP military aggression. The simulation, held in Tokyo and titled “In-depth Examination: New Strategic Document 3 and the Taiwan Crisis—Facing the Challenges Leading up to 2027,” saw its findings (pdf) published this month.
This forum aimed to conduct detailed policy simulations, building on insights from previous sessions and addressing critical issues. Additionally, the event aimed to gather opinions from decision-makers, experts, and the media, encouraging widespread participation to foster deeper understanding among participants and increase public awareness.
This year’s forum witnessed participation from politicians, academics, more than 20 former chiefs of staff, and retired generals from Japan’s land, sea, and air forces. Observers from the United States, UK, Australia, Finland, Lithuania, and NATO were also present. Taiwan participated for the first time, with four representatives from Taiwan’s Institute of National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) in attendance.
Global Outlook and Projected CCP Aggression in 2027
Participants in the simulation were divided into the “white” faction (Japan, together with the United States, Taiwan, government agencies, and others) and the “red” faction (representing the presumed adversary, China).However, the emphasis was placed on the Japanese side to emulate Japanese decision-making processes. The objective was to examine the new strategic document in the context of a potential Taiwan crisis and challenges foreseen leading up to 2027.
The year 2027 was chosen because it will mark the halfway point for Japan’s three key national security strategy documents, which are valid for 10 years and most recently adjusted in 2022.
The simulation’s primary methodology envisioned the security climate in the Taiwan Strait in 2027. The central theme encompassed rapid escalation, civil defense, evacuation of Japanese citizens, refugee response, ballistic missile attacks, etc. In addition, various hypothetical scenarios were proposed, serving as the basis for participants’ dialogue.
The presumed historical backdrop was that the Russia-Ukraine War had concluded, Europe and the NATO alliance had consolidated, and the world had split into three poles: countries gravitating toward China and Russia, democratic nations led by the United States, Japan, and Europe, and neutral countries in Central and South America and Africa. By this time, the United Nations had become ineffective, and Taiwan continued to be governed by the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party.
The simulation hypothesized a three-stage Chinese aggression against Taiwan: hybrid warfare, provocation and escalation, and military invasion:
In the initial phase, the CCP would refrain from military action and instead resort to information and cognitive warfare, leveraging agents in Taiwan, anti-government forces, the CCP’s coast guard, and maritime militia to provoke Taiwan.
Concurrently, the CCP would initiate cyber attacks against Japan, targeting governmental and military network systems and technical facilities and disseminating fake news.
In the next stage, CCP aircraft would cross the median line of the Taiwan Strait, leading Taiwan to declare a state of emergency. The United States and Europe would urge Japan to provide humanitarian aid, leaving Japan to decide its response, including the possibility of deploying troops.
In the final phase, the CCP would escalate to a military assault, initiating comprehensive military operations against the island of Taiwan and its surrounding islands. Simultaneously, the CCP would launch missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Japan and on Japanese Self-Defense Force bases, forcing Japan to determine whether and how to use retaliatory capabilities.
Outstanding Challenges, Potential Consequences
Li Yen-Sheng, a forum attendee from Taiwan’s INDSR, highlighted that Japan is grappling with how it can best support Taiwan and the U.S.’s aircraft and vessels, should a conflict erupt in the Taiwan Strait.The war game simulation conducted by the Japanese think tank serves a dual purpose: preparing for potential conflict and acting as a deterrent to dissuade adversaries from instigating war. It represents a form of preventative diplomacy as well as a deterrence strategy.
The simulation also highlighted several challenges that need to be addressed. One notable obstacle for the United States and Japan—largely because of time zone differences—is the difficulty of coordinating and executing simultaneous retaliation by destroying enemy missile launch bases.
Further, following an enemy attack, the Japanese government could face complications declaring a “situation of armed attack.” Directly implicating the CCP regime could threaten the safety of Japanese expatriates residing in China. However, a delay in such a declaration could adversely affect the evacuation of residents from Okinawa Prefecture and the Senkaku Islands and potentially delay the mobilization of the Self-Defense Forces to the southwest islands.
‘A Taiwan Emergency is a Japanese Emergency’
In 2021, Japan’s late prime minister Shinzo Abe told Taiwan’s Institute for National Policy Research, “A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan–U.S. alliance.”More than 60 percent of Japan’s semiconductors are sourced from Taiwan. Moreover, almost half the global container fleet and 88 percent of the world’s largest ships by tonnage traversed the Taiwan strait last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Therefore, a crisis in Taiwan would undoubtedly deal a severe blow to Japan, the world’s third-largest economy.
The war game simulation report did not discuss the potential magnitude of economic damage to Japan in the wake of an incident in Taiwan. However, a Japanese language Radio Free Asia report—citing a forum attendee—suggested that it could impact 30 percent of Japan’s GDP.
Moreover, a study last year by Japan’s Nomura Research Institute predicted a disruption of semiconductor imports and a decrease in the country’s GDP if such an incident were to occur.
