MPs: MOD has no ‘Credible Plan’ to Close £16.9 Billion Capability gap

Medics from the Duke of Lancaster's Regiment of the British Army carry medical equipment as they arrive at Wadi Seidna airport in Khartoum, Sudan, on April 27, 2023. (UK Ministry of Defence via Getty Images)

MPs have warned there is a £16.9 billion gap between the Ministry of Defence’s budget and the military capabilities needed by the UK’s armed forces.

The House of Commons Public Accounts Committee (PAC) published a report on Friday which said the gap was at its highest level since this type of analysis began being compiled in 2012, despite the government pumping in £46.3 billion over the next ten years.

The cross-party PAC said the gap could actually be under-estimated because it only included “affordable” capabilities and the actual deficit could be £29 billion.

The report said the capability gap of the British Army alone was short by £12 billion.

Meg Hillier, chair of the PAC, said: “In an increasingly volatile world, the Ministry of Defence’s lack of a credible plan to deliver fully funded military capability as desired by government leaves us in an alarming place.”

The MPs said, “With the support of its allies, the UK’s armed forces continue to fulfil a crucial international role. However, many of its allies are facing similar challenges to the UK, which might affect their ability and willingness to continue providing extensive support.”

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The government has a long-term aspiration to increase defence spending to 2.5 percent of GDP.

The MOD published its equipment plan last month but the PAC said the credibility of the UK armed forces had been, “undermined” and warned the gaps in military capabilities had left Britain more reliant on its NATO allies than ever before.

Question Marks Over 44 of 46 Equipment Programmes

But only two of the MOD’s 46 equipment programmes are rated as “highly likely” to be delivered to time, budget and quality.

Five of the projects which are listed as unachievable include new nuclear submarine reactors,  communications technology and missiles.

The report also accused the MOD of dodging “major decisions” about cancelling unaffordable procurement programmes.

It also highlighted that the decision to prioritise the Defence Nuclear Enterprise, which manages the UK’s nuclear deterrent, had increased the deficit and risked further squeezing budgets for conventional forces.

The MPs also pointed to “widely reported” recruitment issues, which have seen more people leaving the armed forces than joining.

In September 2023 Tory MP Mark Francois said at a defence committee that the British Army was only hitting 80 percent of its recruitment targets.

At the time Tim Ripley, a defence analyst and author of “Little Green Men: The Inside Story of Russia’s New Military Power,” claimed the MOD wanted to reduce the army’s roll call of 77,000 to around 73,000.

A screen grab from the British Army's latest recruitment advert, which was launched on Sep. 4, 2023. (British Army)

Mr. Ripley told The Epoch Times: “I would suggest to you that they actually are reducing the number of people recruited into the British army on purpose.”

The PAC said, “The MOD acknowledged that its current workforce plan was not working in the way it wanted, and said that its number one risk to delivering defence priorities both now and in the future was not attracting the right number of people with the skills that it needs.”

MOD Offering ‘Zigzag Careers’ to Tackle Recruitment Problem

“To address this, it is looking at ways to provide greater flexibility in armed forces careers, such as ‘zigzag careers’ with people coming in and out of the services,” it added.

The PAC says, “the MoD is considering mothballing Royal Navy ships because of crew shortages, and the only Royal Navy ship able to fully replenish the UK’s aircraft carriers is unavailable this year because of a refit.”

But last month, in a parliamentary answer, ministers told the chair of the intelligence and security committee, Julian Lewis, assault ships HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark were not being mothballed and would remain in service until the mid-2030s.

Labour’s shadow defence secretary, John Healey, said, “Conservative ministers might talk a good game on defence but this report is more proof of their failure to deal with the deep problems in the MOD.”

“Ministers have lost control of the defence budget, failed to fix the ‘broken’ defence procurement system and wasted billions of pounds of public money,” he added.

Mr. Healey said, “With war in the Europe and conflict in the Middle East, ministers risk leaving our armed forces without the equipment they need to fight and fulfil our NATO obligations.”

But Treasury minister Gareth Davies said he did not “recognise” the PAC’s findings and pointed to “record funding” going into Britain’s armed forces.

Mr. Davies told Sky News, “We have got ... over £50 billion being spent this year on defence, it was uplifted by £11 billion at the last spring budget, so money is going into our defences.

“But the nature of conflict has also changed in that we need technology and a different way of tackling conflict and being ready to do so,” he added.

In March 2023 Tobias Ellwood, a Tory MP and former British Army captain, said £11 billion was not enough to regenerate the “hollowed-out” army.

PA Media contributed to this report.