‘Biggest Factor Was Dutton’: Labor Strategist Explains Election Win

Strategist Paul Erickson says Labor’s return was powered by regained economic trust, a focused strategy, and a prime minister who was ‘in his element.’

Australia's Prime Minister Anthony Albanese gestures with his partner Jodie Haydon and son Nathan after winning the general election at the Labor Party election night event in Sydney, Australia on May 3, 2025. Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images

Labor campaign director Paul Erickson has credited Anthony Albanese’s leadership style, and public unease about Peter Dutton’s record and temperament as key to securing the government’s second-term victory.

Unveiling Labor’s post-election blueprint at the National Press Club on May 21, Erickson said the campaign hinged on five elements: the government’s three year delivery record and an ambitious plan for the future, focusing on Medicare, portraying Labor as being able to handle the economy, Prime Minister Albanese’s personal appeal, and, decisively, voter concern about the “risk Peter Dutton represented.”

“Albo was in his element, connecting with everyday people and enjoying it,” Erickson said. “And while the prime minister was telling a positive story about who we are and where we’re going, Peter Dutton was gloomy about the country.”

But it was Dutton, he said, who helped define the contrast.

‘Dutton Was the 5th And Biggest Factor’

While acknowledging the government’s early vulnerabilities—particularly the Coalition’s summer polling lead—Erickson said the tide turned when voters were presented with a clearer choice.

“The contrast was as clear as night and day,” he said. “The prime minister offered authentic, measured and firm leadership, and Peter Dutton never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”

Labor identified Dutton as an “unacceptable risk on two levels”: policy and character.

“When Mr. Dutton was Tony Abbott’s health minister, he cut $50 billion from hospitals. He tried to end bulk billing. He wanted to charge for emergency room visits, and he made medicines more expensive,” Erickson said.

Dutton’s rejection of widely supported policies failed to cut through, Erickson argued.

“As opposition leader, he opposed Labor’s tax cuts, Medicare urgent care clinics, cheaper medicines, more affordable childcare, and energy bill relief. He flagged cutting at least $350 billion from essential services—all while proposing a $600 billion nuclear scheme, without explaining where the money would come from.”

Beyond policy, concerns centred on his perceived recklessness, aggression, and intolerance — qualities that unsettled voters and raised doubts about his suitability.

Above all, many felt he lacked empathy and failed to understand the realities of ordinary life.

Erickson said Dutton’s failure to clearly define his campaign audience made him appear adrift.

“Was he focused on Australians who were looking for the party with the best plan to make them better off over the next three years? Or was his priority winning over voters who were looking for an Australian version of MAGA?”

Scare Tactics and Digital Blitz

The campaign was not without controversy.

Erickson was grilled over Labor’s aggressive advertising campaign, which included depictions of Dutton as a Sith Lord and Patrick Bateman from American Psycho. Many ads warned that the Coalition would slash Medicare to fund nuclear energy—a claim not supported by the party’s official policy.

Despite this, Erickson stood firm.

“We were completely comfortable with the assertions we made … the risk that he posed to Medicare and Australians’ access to health care was too great to accept,” he said.

He cited Dutton’s own words: “Peter Dutton said in March at the Lowy Institute that past performance is the best indicator of future practice.”

Labor’s digital campaign was muscular, spending nearly $5 million online—more than double the Coalition’s outlay.

Internal tracking polls, he claimed, vindicated the approach.

“By the closing week of the campaign, our tracking poll found that voters believed that Labor’s campaign was more focused on the issues that mattered to them personally than the Coalition by a margin of 16 points.”

He added, “The Coalition had told the most lies during the campaign by a margin of five points. The Coalition made more promises they couldn’t afford by a margin of nine, and the Coalition ran the more negative campaign by a margin of 11 points.”

Coalition Fought Election on the Wrong Ground

Rather than follow horse-race polling, Erickson said Labor’s strategy was based on extensive qualitative research designed to uncover voter sentiment at a granular level.

The campaign saw early warning signs that voters—especially younger Australians under inflationary pressure—were focused on the next three years, not the last three.

“The Coalition believed that they could win the election by asking people whether they were better off today than they were three years ago,” Erickson said.

“But looking back reminded voters of the Morrison government and Peter Dutton’s track record, which was very weak territory for them.”

In Labor’s November 2024 polling, 37 percent of voters rated Dutton’s performance in the Morrison government as poor, compared to just 27 percent rating it good. Morrison’s government overall was rated poor by 41 percent, and good by just 25 percent.

Erickson said the party deliberately tuned out media chatter predicting a hung parliament or even a Coalition resurgence.

Instead, the party stuck to its plan, building strong local campaigns in key seats. “We are confident that when counting concludes, this will be the first election since 1966 where the incumbent party didn’t lose a seat.”

Lessons from 2022: Taking on the Greens

The Labor campaign also implemented key lessons from the 2022 election, particularly the need to counter the Greens more forcefully.

The Greens endured a poor outcome in the election, losing three of their four lower house seats, including party leader Adam Bandt.

The electorate of Ryan in Brisbane now stands as the party’s sole remaining presence in the lower house.

“In Southeast Queensland, we had underestimated the threat from the Greens,” Erickson said. “Our 2022 campaign review called on the party to more directly contest the political positions advocated by the Greens and dedicate resources to this task.”

He argued the Greens’ actions in Parliament made them look obstructionist to voters.

“The Coalition’s blocking strategy meant we had to grapple with the challenge of a Greens political party that was equally committed to frustrating progress—whether that was because of ideological fervour or their winged internals, is beyond me.”

Strategy, Not Just Luck

Erickson ended with a gratitude for the entire Labor team, but firmly rejected that the victory was a stroke of luck.

“This turnaround was not an accident, nor did it arise from luck or the impact of external events,” he said.

Instead, he credited the win to careful planning, unwavering discipline, and precise execution—a result, he stressed, earned through hard work, not chance.