At the beginning of the current Russian-Ukrainian war, many pundits claimed that Taiwan should copy Ukraine’s “porcupine strategy” and focus on “asymmetric warfare.”
The Russian-Ukrainian War Is a Work in Progress
When the war started, the public, the politicians, and the media were enamored by the Ukrainian “Davids” knocking out Russian tanks “Goliaths” with the proverbial stone—the Javelin and other anti-tank missiles. These groups were like cheerleaders shouting encouraging words, thinking that anti-tank and anti-armor missiles and a few anti-ship and anti-air missiles would end the Russian invasion. Nope.Tank Numbers
The Russian army continues to press on with armor, missiles, aircraft, and infantry. At the beginning of the war, the Russians had about 3,000 main battle tanks (MBTs), and the Ukrainians had about 1,000, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ (IISS) 2021 annual report, “The Military Balance.” By Jan. 24, according to Oryx, Russia had lost at least 1,646 (total destroyed: 967, mostly T-72s and T-80s and, at least, 44 advanced T-90 MBTs, including 10 of the latest T-90M), 75 tanks damaged, 59 abandoned, and 545 captured.Of the 1,000 tanks Ukraine had at the beginning of the war, Ukraine lost 450 (mostly T-64s and T-72s), 267 destroyed, 24 damaged, 16 abandoned, and 143 captured. In effect, Ukraine also lost about half of its inventory but gained 545 captured Russian tanks. Thank goodness for innovative and smart Ukrainians!
Prior to the new tranche of MBTs promised to Ukraine, the nations of Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, North Macedonia, and the Netherlands provided at least 450 modernized Soviet-design tanks, mainly T-72s. Thus, Ukraine increased its inventory by 50 percent (of its initial total of 1,000) during the war.
Countries Agreeing to Send More Tanks
As of Jan. 26, according to author and defense analyst H I Sutton, the following nine countries agreed to send Ukraine between 73 and 175 MBTs:- United Kingdom: 14 Challenger 2
- United States: 31 M1A1 Abrams
- Germany: 14 Leopard 2 (and another 14)
- Poland: 14 Leopard 2
- Spain: Up to 53 Leopard 2
- Norway: 8 Leopard 2
- Netherlands: 18 Leopard 2
- Finland: 5 Leopard 2
- Portugal: 4 Leopard 2
M1074 Joint Assault Bridge System (JABS)
Tanks and other heavy armor need bridging systems to cross areas where bridges were damaged or because the existing bridges cannot hold the 63-ton Abrams tank. They also will need these bridging systems to cross water obstacles that are too deep or to bypass anti-tank ditches. The U.S. Army uses the M1074 Joint Assault Bridge System (JABS), which deploys an MLC95 bridge with a gap crossing of 11 meters in approximately 3 minutes and can support the Abrams’ weight.What About Taiwan?
According to the IISS 2021 “The Military Balance,” Taiwan’s army has a total of 565 MBTs: 200 M60A3, 100 M48A5, and 265 M48H Brave Tiger tanks. Taiwan also has about 100 M41A3/D Walker Bulldog light tanks.‘The Lady Doth Protest Too Much, Methinks’ (Shakespeare’s ’Hamlet)
Many “asymmetric warfare” diehards will claim that Ukraine is not like Taiwan. Yet these same self-proclaimed “smart people” made statements early in the Russian-Ukrainian war that Ukraine should use “asymmetric warfare” against the Russians, just as they had argued Taiwan should pursue “asymmetric warfare” to protect themselves against the PLA. Clearly, MBT versus MBT is symmetric warfare, regardless of how fast and glibly asymmetric strategists talk.Nuclear Weapons
It is ironic that U.S. experts, who enjoy the luxury of a full suite of weapons, including nuclear weapons, tell other countries to conduct “one-handed” fights. Freedom-loving countries that developed their own nuclear stockpiles are safer for having them. Israel and India are better off than those countries that the United States stopped from developing nuclear weapons, such as Taiwan. Even Japanese and South Korean politicians and the publics now discuss the nuclear option more openly because of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) and North Korea’s aggressive military behaviors throughout East Asia.The 1994 Budapest Memorandum
Probably the most ironic story of the Russian-Ukraine war is the 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Until 1994, Ukraine had 3,000 nuclear weapons, Belarus had 81 nuclear weapons, and Kazakhstan had 1,400 nuclear weapons. Russia, the UK, and the United States forced these countries to join the Non-Proliferation Treaty and remove their nuclear weapons from Russia.What did Russia, UK, and the United States promise Ukraine?
- Respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
- Reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine.
Ukraine-China Strategic Partnership
The icing on the cake is that the CCP had signed several agreements with Ukraine, including a 2013 “Joint Declaration of Ukraine and China to further deepen strategic partnership 2014–2018” just before the Russian 2014 invasion. What did the declaration say?The joint CCP-Ukraine declaration stated the same thing that the UK, United States, and Russia had promised in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum—the CCP agreed that it would not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine and would protect Ukraine if a nuclear power used nuclear weapons against it.
Did the CCP have such an agreement with any other country in the world? No.
Asymmetric and Symmetric Warfare—the Only Way
No matter how “experts” argue, fighting with one hand behind one’s back will lead to disaster. The adviser to the Ukrainian defense minister got it right. Yuriy Sak, who advises Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, said the following to Reuters: “They didn’t want to give us heavy artillery, then they did. They didn’t want to give us HIMARS systems, then they did. They didn’t want to give us tanks, now they’re giving us tanks. Apart from nuclear weapons, there is nothing left that we will not get.”What about Western fighter aircraft? Sak said: “If we get them (Western fighter jets), the advantages on the battlefield will be just immense. ... It’s not just F-16s (U.S. multirole fighter jets): fourth generation aircraft, this is what we want.”
Additionally, after a recent meeting in Brussels of NATO military chiefs, Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Gen. Christopher Cavoli (U.S. Army), said: “There is not a particular weapon system that is a silver bullet. A balance of all systems is needed.”
Taiwan’s Future Weapons Procurement
Pundits can make disparaging remarks about Taiwan’s government, military, and weapon systems. But now the Russian-Ukrainian war has clearly demonstrated that countries need a full suite of weapons, military personnel, and strategies to counter their enemies, especially against superpower aggressor states like Russia and communist China.The proponents of “asymmetric warfare”-only and “porcupine”-only strategies do not provide useful advice to future victims of aggression. I would be happy to take on any of these pundits who support these losing strategies if they think they can beat me by fighting with one hand behind their backs.