China has announced plans to convene its third plenum in July, focusing on reforms and economic strategies, as revealed in a press release by the Political Bureau of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Analysts speculate that the downturn in the economy has compelled Beijing to re-emphasize reform and opening up, though doubts persist regarding the practical impact of such political rhetoric.
The delay of last year’s third plenum of Chinese Leader Xi Jinping’s Central Committee, typically held in October or November, has led observers to attribute it to Xi’s centralized decision-making style and the unprecedented challenges facing the CCP’s governance.
The third plenum’s significance lies in its role in shaping the country’s economic trajectory for the next five to ten years.
The reform and opening up are deemed crucial in advancing economic reform and attracting foreign investment, said the Political Bureau’s directive.
However, Xi’s recent policy shifts have veered away from the decades-long trajectory of reform and opening up, indicating a leftward shift in alignment with his predecessor, Mao Zedong.
Shen Mingshi, Acting Deputy Chief Executive Officer at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) in Taiwan, questions whether the Chinese leader’s advocacy for reform and opening up stems from internal power struggles or a genuine desire to address China’s economic challenges.
The Economic Banner
Su Ziyun, Director of the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources at INDSR, interprets the recent CCP meeting as an acknowledgment of past economic missteps, prompting a return to the principles of reform and opening up.He sees the latter as the CCP’s “economic banner” and suggests that Xi’s recent travels to western China mirror Deng Xiaoping’s influential southern tour, indicating the severity of China’s economic troubles.
However, despite Xi’s rhetoric on reform and opening up, doubts persist regarding its practical implementation, particularly in light of stringent national security measures that could deter foreign investment.
China’s reform and opening up had slowed down or even stalled due to the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre. Mr. Deng’s tour to the southern province, Guangdong, was believed to have spurred a new round of so-called reform and opening up at that time.
Recently, Chen Yixin, the Chinese Minister of State Security, outlined the ministry’s focus on combating subversion, hegemony, separatism, terrorism, and espionage in the April 29 issue of Study Times, the official newspaper of the CCP’s highest internal training institution.
Mr. Shen believes that Xi has a sense of urgency for continuing to a fourth term. He suggests that Xi’s motivations might stem from a sense of crisis as “he contemplates a potential fourth term, leading him to prioritize stability over genuine economic reform.”
Furthermore, he argues that China’s economy may already be facing unprecedented challenges beyond immediate resolution.
He said, “Xi will still rely on people like Minister of State Security Chen Yixin to maintain stability. Therefore, the effectiveness of Beijing’s claims to promote reform and opening up is questionable.”
Mr. Su echoes similar sentiments, asserting that only genuine political reform can drive meaningful economic change, and suggests that Xi’s team has misunderstood this crucial connection.
Additionally, the meeting focused on advancing the “Integration of the Yangtze River Delta,” a significant economic development strategy covering Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, and Anhui Province.
The regime claimed it as one of the regions with the most active economic development, the highest degree of openness, and the strongest innovation ability in China, serving an important strategic role in the overall national situation and modernization.
However, Mr. Su believes that without political reform, such economic strategies may prove ineffective in attracting foreign investment.
He said, “The efficacy of economic strategies like the Integration of the Yangtze River Delta hinges on meaningful political reform.”
In summary, China’s upcoming third plenum reflects a renewed emphasis on reform and opening up, yet doubts persist regarding its practical implementation amid tightening national security measures and economic challenges.
